Besides Mayweather, There Aren’t Many Strong Choices Left at Welterweight for Pacquiao:
A few years ago, when Manny Pacquiao joined the welterweight division, the options seemed endless. Welterweight was boxing’s glamor division with a bevy of marketable opponents vying for the top spot. There were top guys like Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton still making an occasional welterweight appearance, in addition to Floyd Mayweather, Paul Williams, Antonio Margarito, Zab Judah, Kermit Cintron, Carlos Quintana, Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto, and Joshua Clottey—all good and marketable fighters. The list of mouth-watering matchups was endless.
Now as we approach the midway point of 2011, it’s not quite the same is it? Pacquiao himself has a lot to do with it. His victories over Oscar, Cotto, and Clottey sent them packing. Williams, Margarito (Pacquiao’s last victim), Cintron, and Quintana moved up in weight. Judah moved down. Mayweather is on the shelf. Mosley is really the last name on that list from a few years ago and even his star isn’t shining like it once did.
Andre Berto is unquestionably a fine fighter and rising young titleholder, but exactly the type of low-reward/high-risk fight one would expect a fighter of Pacquiao’s stature to avoid at this point in his career. Frankly, he’s earned the right. So if Pacquiao beats Mosley, as he is heavily favored to do, what is his next course of action?
Staying at Welterweight
A few things could make this a more viable option. If Pacquiao vs. Mosley is closer-than-expected, a rematch could lead right into making a fight with Mayweather, a bout that is sure to be at 147. At the same time, Mayweather is contending with legal issues that figure to complicate an already-problematic negotiation. If we’ve learned anything, it’s to not bank on that fight getting made despite how right it might seem.
Maybe Pacquiao can extend his shelf life at 147 by luring some fighters to come out of their weight class. With a boom in talent just 7 pounds south at junior welterweight, it shouldn’t be too hard to lure Timothy Bradley into moving up in weight. The Freddie Roach connection makes one wonder how realistic a fight with Khan will ever become, but it’s another option.
Moving Down
Is it even possible? Can Manny make 140 anymore? There is contrasting evidence, but it wouldn’t be such a bad move. While dominant, the 5’6” Pacquiao might be tiring of fighting naturally bigger men. It takes a toll on a boxer to fight a bunch of 12-rounders against guys who are such larger physical specimens. If he drops back to 140, he would be facing guys closer to his size and might get back to scoring some early knockouts.
Dropping down in weight might prove difficult, but the fights themselves would presumably be easier and could extend Pacquiao’s career a bit. In addition, it opens up a whole new cast of possibilities for different opponents to fight. At the same time, who outside of Khan and Bradley would be considered worthy of a match with Pacquiao? Maybe it would make fights with some top lightweights more realistic and set up a third Marquez fight.
Moving Up
Now that Pacquiao snagged a belt at 154, it seems unlikely that he will be taking on any junior middleweights. A catchweight rematch with Miguel Cotto at 150 could potentially happen, but Bob Arum probably senses the public’s lack of enthusiasm of seeing that fight again. It’s doubtful there is anyone at 154 that warrants Pacquiao’s attention. If he were to take that route, he wouldn’t have been so quick to vacate the WBC belt he won against Margarito.
It seems ridiculous to suggest he move up again considering how many weight classes he’s already conquered, but the bigger names just so happen to reside a little bit north of 147 and 154. Sergio Martinez, specifically, is probably the opponent most people would like to see Pacquiao fight other than Mayweather and possibly Marquez. There is a certain lunacy for even mentioning this as a realistic option, but Manny has already fractured our pre-conceived notion of boxers and weight, so maybe it’s not so outside the realm of reason.
It doesn’t hurt that Martinez is a smallish middleweight, who seems capable of dropping pounds to meet at a reasonable catchweight. If Bernard Hopkins, Kelly Pavlik, or Paul Williams were middleweight champion now, it would be more far-fetched because they’re simply too tall. Martinez, a former welterweight who weighed 153 for a 2009 fight, is a more realistic proposition. He’s listed at 5’10,” but is probably closer to 5’8.” It’s a fight that would have the boxing world crackling with excitement—definitely a reasonable replacement if the Mayweather fight never transpires. It could also be the perfect cherry on top of Pacquiao’s career should he win.
…..
In a way, Pacquiao is a victim of the high standards he set a few years ago. We became used to him pushing the envelope in his matchmaking to the point where the media’s expectations of him exceed any other fighter. Then, we were all expecting to see him fight Mayweather and that never happened. It all contributes to a feeling of fan and media restlessness that seems to be growing concerning Pacquiao’s recent work. Strange, since the fact that a guy who once barely weighed 100 pounds as a pro is beating the best-of-the-rest of a pretty darned good welterweight era is nothing short of stunning.
Despite his Hall-of-Fame resume, fans want to see him tackle more meaningful challenges. Following Mosley, Pacquiao will probably have to book a fight with Timothy Bradley, Juan Manuel Marquez, Sergio Martinez, or Floyd Mayweather to escape additional media backlash. Any other opponent choice will probably lead to more fan and media restlessness.
It will probably shake out this way: Pacquiao will beat Mosley, the possibility of a Mayweather fight will shape up to be a no-go, and Manny will need to pick an opponent. If at that moment, a Cotto fight is set up or some bolt-from-the-sky opponent is selected—there will be criticism. And this time, it will probably be at least somewhat justified. Even those who think Pacquiao won both Marquez fights can’t deny the vibe of “unfinished business” that lingers over that rivalry. Bradley is eager for a shot. There are just a lot of options that give Pacquiao the opportunity to put a final stamp on his greatness that don’t include Floyd Mayweather.
We just don’t want to see Pacquiao play a waiting game with Mayweather. There are other paths. It just seems that it’s all about waiting for Floyd, with that carrot being dangled in front of everyone’s face. It could be playing into Mayweather’s hands to let him sit on the sidelines waiting for Pacquiao to come down to earth a bit. It also gives Floyd the undeserved comfort of being able to call for that match whenever he pleases. If the Floyd fight can’t be made after Mosley, then Pacquiao should no longer operate under the “we’re waiting for Mayweather to get his act together” pretense. He would seem compelled to forge a different path, but one that is meaningful.
There is another school of thought that says Manny has started bringing mainstream media back into the sport. It wouldn’t hurt boxing to keep it that way for the next couple years. Maybe there is a higher calling here than appeasing nit-picky boxing historians. In addition, beating Cotto-Clottey-Margarito-Mosley (if he does) is hardly the “bum of the month” tour—these are good fighters. Sometimes we can forget that there are really no names in boxing history who took on the most compelling opponent possible in every fight. All the greats had stretches of fights in their primes where the fever pitch leveled out a bit, and for a so-called “lull,” Pacquiao’s recent workload has been quite passable. After this, there are no more go-to names at welterweight and Pacquiao might have to look elsewhere. Look for a spike on the flatline before the end of the year.
