Fight pick & preview – Abraham vs. Smith:
On February 28, British super middleweight Paul Smith will get his much-deserved rematch against WBO titlist Arthur Abraham. “King” Arthur has not had an easy time in recent years. The powerful puncher was the main loser of the Super Six tournament, and since then his effort to get back to the top of the world 168 lbs scene mired him in a trilogy with Robert Steiglitz.
It was hardly inspiring or lucrative stuff, and then Abraham won what was widely perceived as another stinky German hometown decision against Smith in September.
For a time it looked as if the controversial unanimous decision in favor of Abraham would stand unchallenged, but the WBO eventually ordered a rematch. Abraham’s management must be hoping this rematch goes better than his last one, which he lost to Steiglitz by TKO4!
Adding to the Berlin fight card and to the support for Smith is fellow Liverpudlian David Price. The towering British heavyweight is coming back from his back-to-back losses to Tony Thompson in 2013. Price’s opponent has yet to be announced.
Paul Smith (35-4, 20 KOs)
- 5’11”, 72″ reach, Age 32
- British
Smith is a journeyman, nothing more. The “controversy” surrounding his first bout with Abraham has little to do with a true robbery. Hardly anyone outside of Smith’s camp think “Smigga” won the fight. Instead, the fight is an example of the winner taking the bout on the cards by ridiculous and unjustifiably wide margins. That is the main thing to understand about Smith going into this fight.
Arthur Abraham (41-4, 28 KOs)
- 5’9″ tall, 71″ reach, Age 34
- Armenian living in Germany
- Former middleweight titlist, current and two-time WBO super middleweight titlist
Abraham’s approach to boxing is now well-understood, and its limits go a long way to explaining his ups and downs. He moves (mostly) forward behind a high guard, probing with his jab until his opponent opens up, either due to Abraham’s efforts or due to a mistake. He then slings giant bombs into the opening. It’s crude and somewhat effective, but Abraham has no answers for those who can either out-box or out-tough him.
Abraham vs. Smith Analysis
Two questions dog Abraham going into this fight. First is whether King Arthur has lost Excalibur. Abraham is a puncher, and yet he hasn’t knocked out an opponent in three years. Against that backdrop, it’s fair to ask if the German-Armenian hasn’t lost some snap.
The other question is what actually happened in September. Did Smith give a career-high performance? Was Abraham having a bad night? Or does Smith have Abraham’s number the way Steiglitz did.
Between the two questions, we have a complex matrix of possibilities. If Abraham has lost some punch and Smith has his number, it points to Smith improving and taking the win. If it was just a good night for Smith or a bad night for Abraham, then Abraham should win. If it was both good for Smith and bad for Abraham at the same time, Abraham ought to win by knockout and break his fast.
Abraham vs. Smith Preview
I think Abraham is suffering from a problem that besets many fearsome punchers when the chink in their armor is exposed, namely that they cease to seem that fearsome and opponents start zeroing in on that chink. Recent events have also made him seem a little more reluctant to fully commit to his offense, taking the edge off. Simply put, people aren’t afraid of King Arthur and the King himself is more cautious.
That said, I don’t see any reason why Abraham shouldn’t score another decision victory over Paul Smith. He basically did so last time, but it was more like a close split decision rather than a unanimous decision with six and seven point margins.
Prediction: Arthur Abraham SD12 Paul Smith
