Hopkins vs. Kovalev Fight Preview:
On November 8th, Bernard Hopkins and Sergey Kovalev will face off to gain further insight into who reigns in the talent-laden light heavyweight division. Hopkins (55-6-2, 32KOs), just a few months shy of his 50th birthday, is no ordinary human being. Fighting not just at this level, but at this age, has ensured Hopkins can revel appropriately in his new nickname,“The Alien”.
His opponent, Kovalev (25-0-1, 23KOs), has a short but appealing highlight reel. In under two years, the Russian has steamrolled his way to the top of the 175 lb class, taking about an hour to see off his last six opponents combined. In what will likely prove a battle of styles as well as skills, who will prevail? Read on and find out.
Physical
Bernard Hopkins has defied the laws of boxing nature. At an age when most fighters are ex-fighters, throwing punches into the mirror and reminiscing of the older, harder days, Hopkins is out there on center stage, trading shots under the lights at 49 years old. He has achieved this by adaptation and being technically supreme, but this fight will prove a tough examination of his physical state.
Hopkins sets a slower pace these days. Gone is the time when he could afford to waste energy, as he did in his vivacious taunting of Kelly Pavlik in 2008, when he was but a mere 43 years of age. He retains the ability to hurt, as he did when knocking down Beibut Shumenov in his last fight. He still possesses fast hands and feet, but they aren’t as fast as they once were. Even a legend such as he cannot reverse the sands of time.
Sergey Kovalev has made his name punching opponents’ lights out, and one should not expect him to play a long game against Hopkins. Raw strength and athleticism make him an irrepressible force. He gains powerful leverage in even the most ordinary of shots; a jab of his caused significant trouble to Nathan Cleverly en route to a 4th round stoppage last year. One slight concern, however, is that Kovalev is yet to be tested over a long distance.
Hopkins will no doubt wish to test that durability, rather than banking on the extremely fanciful idea that the Russian’s chin may be suspect and he could be banged out early. Nonetheless, just because we don’t know something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Kovalev could well be the most durable fighter going, he just hasn’t had to prove it yet. Hopkins himself is susceptible to a frenetic pace, as shown in a tougher than expected fight with Karo Murat last year, and he won’t want Kovalev to get motoring early.
Mental
Hopkins is the master of the mind-game. Jean Pascal had the fear of God in his eyes as Hopkins performed push-ups in the middle of their fight in 2011. In that instance, Pascal lost any remaining shred of confidence as a man 18 years his senior showboated right in front of him to the delight of the crowd. People see playfulness in the mockery as Hopkins sticks out his tongue and grins during fights, but they should not be fooled. It’s all part of Hopkins’ psychological warfare.
It’s got to the point that when Hopkins explains his new moniker by suggesting that he actually is an alien, we don’t know whether to laugh or listen. He is supremely confident and extremely frustrating to fight, a potent mixture that makes a fight with Hopkins an attritional mind-game as much as a physical duel.
Simply by accepting this fight, Hopkins has implanted seeds of doubt into Kovalev and all his followers. Kovalev’s fighting style induces nosebleeds and headaches within a matter of minutes, yet this 49 year old wants to square up to him for twelve rounds. Why? Most would have not just have accepted, but expected Hopkins to swerve a guy like Kovalev.
Yet, he signed up for the challenge on his own accord. Right about now pundits, fans and perhaps even the Russian himself are probably thinking “What does Hopkins know that I don’t”?
It would be a fair to be curious about exactly what Hopkins sees in this fight. He has, after all, made his reputation on the schooling of younger men. Kelly Pavlik didn’t move his head – Hopkins shone a light on it. Jean Pascal struggled over twelve hard rounds – Hopkins shone a light on it. Kovalev has gotten used to blowing opponents away, and thus he remains relatively untested. Hopkins is a calculated and experienced customer and thus in accepting this fight there’s no doubt he’s picked up on something in Kovalev’s style that he feels he can expose.
Technical
It is simplistic to reduce Kovalev’s style to merely possessing power. He can finish a fight with one shot, but there is more in his arsenal to back that up. It’s difficult to see in the short-lasting contests Kovalev tends to partake in, but he has shown glimpses of sound technical traits.
For starters, he appears precise in close and refuses to let an opponent off the hook lightly when hurt, making him the master at capitalizing on momentary weakness. He also throws with thought. This was evident in his destruction of Cleverly, where he doubled up left hooks, the first one hitting the guard, the second one penetrating it.
He has consistently shown the value of a well-timed overhand right, and he is adept at cutting off the ring. There are, however, flaws in Kovalev’s armory for Hopkins to take advantage of.
Two flaws that could prove fatal for Kovalev against a man like Hopkins are that he occasionally loses his balance, and he often leaves his chin in the air. Hopkins is a master punch-picker and counter-puncher. He will make you miss and make you pay.
If Kovalev lurches in even once without a plan, it is a near-certainty that he will feel the effects. Hopkins has superb timing, and he is likely to be more alert than ever against a hellacious puncher like Kovalev, meaning that he will be looking for any openings to sneak in shots against the slightly smaller man.
Hopkins is also a great judge of a fight and has often recovered from bad starts to take control, as he did when first up against Pascal. Knocked down twice in the opening three rounds, Hopkins gradually reasserted control over the fight, and many considered the draw decision controversially favorable to Pascal. He will also happily make a fight ugly if it means victory, spoiling on the inside to disrupt the rhythm of his opponent.
Hopkins vs. Kovalev Prediction
Kovalev is a merciless puncher and a relentless aggressor, meaning Hopkins is going to have to deal with being hit hard and often. Kovalev will want to start fast and get into an offensive flow early, as opposed to giving Hopkins time to settle and, more crucially, time to think. Kovalev is not averse to missing a couple of shots to land a few, and he will likely cause trouble to Hopkins early on with this attitude as Hopkins struggles to get out of the way.
Hopkins will thus likely suffer a knockdown early on, the key test will be whether he bounces up forthrightly, or groggily gets to his feet with glazed eyes. A cute veteran such as Hopkins won’t readily put himself in the line of such obvious fire though, so expect him to gut out the early going and make the fight last.
In the later stages, Hopkins will time Kovalev with hard, single shots, reducing the points gap after a bad start, but it will not be enough. Kovalev will prove he can go the distance in a tough fight, and take the contest via way of the judges in a fight more exciting than initially expected.
Verdict: Sergey Kovalev by Unanimous Decision
