Danny Garcia vs. Mauricio Herrera Fight Preview:
Can an emboldened Mauricio Herrera, who defeated Ruslan Provodnikov by decision in 2011, and gamely battled Mike Alvarado in a decision loss in 2012, stop the ascendancy of rising star Danny Garcia? Can “El Maestro” pull off what certainly would be the upset of the year thus far before the boxing crazed Puerto Rican fans at the Coliseo Ruben Rodriguez on March 15th?
Let’s examine Herrera’s credentials…
A win over Provodnikov certainly sounds impressive. Provodnikov is the power punching, tough as nails action fighter, who took unbeaten Timothy Bradley to the brink of extinction in their fight last year. As you might expect, some may pin Herrera’s prospects in this upcoming fight to that night against Provodnikov. It was reported that Herrera was able to neutralize Provodnikov’s attack to the body and he displayed good work output and overall ring generalship.
When I looked more closely at the fight, Herrera is a light punching but skilled boxer who managed to counter Provodnikov’s bull rushes by clinching often. A more proactive ref might have docked him a point as Herrera’s holding tactics continued to befuddle Provodnikov. Provodnikov clearly landed the heavier punches throughout. With the same punch output from both fighters, a fight like this will normally favor the aggressor and stronger puncher.
Herrera’s eye was damaged and almost closed and the ring physician was checking in on him during the last few rounds. Many observers at ringside thought Provodnikov won the fight including Teddy Atlas whose unofficial scorecard gave Provodnikov 8 rounds. I thought Provodnikov won as well.
If Herrera’s “impressive” win against Provodnikov might be called a bit into question, what did he do to build on the momentum from the Provodnikov fight? Did he follow up on his decision win over the Russian with some strong performances against high quality competition?
Herrera’s most memorable next fights were losses to Mike Alvarado and unbeaten Karim Mayfield. It appeared to me that Herrera may have peaked in his close fight against Alvarado and even then he faded in the last few rounds of the match. Mayfield is talented and unbeaten, but his level of opponents has been suspect, and Herrera’s clear loss to him was not an impressive showing. Again, against two quality opponents a mixed bag, at best.
Can we be more optimistic about what Herrera has done lately? Well, not exactly. True, Herrera has won his last two fights by wide unanimous decisions against Ji-Hoon Kim and Miguel Angel Huerta. His last opponent Huerta is a dangerous puncher but he was coming off a 5 year layoff. Kim has a very porous defense. Neither one of these fighters is of the caliber of Provodnikov or Alvarado. Kim and Huerta have punching power but they also had a combined 18 losses on their record.
This fight has all the appearances of an opponent who has been selected to make Garcia look good. There is nothing on Herrera’s recent resume to suggest that he has the chops to spring an upset against Garcia. While skilled and tough, he is nearing 34 years old and lacks the punch to keep Garcia at bay.
Contrast that with the hard punching Garcia, who is 9 years younger and has nearly as many rounds of experience. He is fresh off a string of victories against top competition like Lucas Matthysee, Zab Judah, and Amir Khan.
Heading into the bout on Saturday, March 15th, is there a chance that Garcia will be overconfident against an opponent who seems overmatched? Not likely.
In the run-up to this fight, at a recent media workout day, Garcia said, “I’m a self motivated person, that’s what got me to the point I’m at today. I don’t take anybody lightly because this is what I do, this is my job. The day that I stop taking it seriously is the day I have to stop boxing. I would never put myself into a position where I go into the ring not prepared.”
Garcia vs. Herrera Prediction:
Garcia will be extra motivated to celebrate his Puerto Rican heritage by putting on an impressive show for the fans. If he wants to get the more lucrative fights in the future, he knows he needs to capture not only more wins, but also the sometimes elusive “fan friendly” tag. This will require a more aggressive fighting style.
Additionally, will be the first time that Garcia will be boxing in front of a knowledgeable and rabid Puerto Rican crowd and against a Mexican-American no less. Talk about a “perfect storm” of motivation for this rising star.
Garcia could start tight and overanxious, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Herrera boxes competently and is effective in the early rounds. He may even revert to the holding tactics that he used so successfully against Provodnikov. Herrera does have a slight height and reach advantage but not the kind of speed that troubled Garcia against Judah.
Let’s not forget, that this is not the same Herrera is three years removed from that memorable performance against Provodnikov, and simply put, he doesn’t have the power to put Garcia on his heels. Unfortunately for him, Garcia does, and I believe that Herrera will wither against Garcia’s punching power. I would expect a later round stoppage with Herrera off his feet at the end.
By the end of the evening, Garcia may just emerge as the young lion ready to be considered for a fight with Floyd Mayweather.
