Wladimir Klitschko’s win over David Haye has made one thing crystal clear: the meaningful fights in the heavyweight division will now be over who steps into the vacuum once the big Ukrainians are gone. August 27th brings us just such a clash to decide the future of the division when Ruslan Chagaev meets Alexander Povetkin in Erfurt, Germany. Unlike any fight involving a Klitschko, this one promises some serious action, something long lacking from the top ranks of the big men.
The bout also represents a crossroads of sorts for both men. Although he is undefeated, Povetkin desperately needs to stop fighting journeymen and earn a win over a Top Ten opponent to avoid slipping into irrelevancy. For his part, Chagaev has been in limbo since his beat-down at the hands of Wladimir Klitschko, and needs something to reignite both his career and the fire in his belly. One of these men is going to get what he needs from this fight, while the loser is probably bound for a stint in the wilderness.
Chagaev vs. Povetkin is ostensibly for the “vacant” WBA Heavyweight Title. Like most fights involving the WBA’s black belts, this notion is a farce. Wladimir Klitschko is the WBA champ by virtue of beating David Haye, but whenever the WBA’s title is unified with other titles, that organization declares the unified champ a “super champion” and puts its “regular championship” back into play. As a practical matter, the winner of this fight is really just the WBA’s #1 contender and a mandatory challenger for Wladimir Klitschko, who is the WBA’s real champion.
Alexander Povetkin (21-0, 15 KOs)
6’2″ tall, 75″ reach, 225 lbs, 31 years old
Russian
Alexander Povetkin comes from a sterling amateur background, having won super heavyweight gold at the 2004 Olympics, the 2003 World Amateur Championship, and the 2002 and 2004 European Amateur Championships. Those accomplishments come on top of his achievements as an amateur kickboxer. In winning the 2004 Olympic gold, he beat Roberto Cammarelle, the man who won that medal in Beijing four years later. Povetkin is a strong and technically proficient, well-schooled stand-up boxer of the classic Eastern European mold.
Thus far, Povetkin’s professional career has been more of a teaser, in that it promises a lot, but has yet to deliver. His three best fights were in 2007 and 2008, when he stopped a shopworn Chris Byrd, boxed the ears off of an ancient Larry Donald and earned a decision over a then-undefeated “Fast” Eddie Chambers. Povetkin became the IBF’s top contender, but he chose not to exercise his right to challenge Wladimir Klitschko for his crown. Many thought Povetkin had peaked in 2008, and since then he has merely been biding his time.
Ruslan Chagaev (27-1-1, 17 KOs)
6’1″ tall, 74″ reach, 228 lbs, southpaw, 32 years old
Uzbekistan
Former heavyweight champion
If anything, his amateur career is even more storied than Povetkin’s. Even though he never won Olympic gold, people often forget that Chagaev beat the legendary Cuban Felix Savon twice in amateur competition. Yet Ruslan Chagaev is perhaps best known for his round-robin over the WBA’s black strap with Nikolai Vaulev and John Ruiz, and is the WBA’s #1 contender. If David Haye had not gone to meet his Waterloo against Wladimir Klitschko, he would have fought Chagaev instead. He is a busy fighter with fast hands, but since losing to Klitschko he has lacked focus.
Chagaev vs. Povetkin Preview & Analysis
On the surface, Chagaev appears to be the more proven of the two fighters. After all, he out-hustled John Ruiz into a Split Decision victory, and then out-boxed the giant Nikolai Vaulev into a Majority Decision win. Yet it is Povetkin’s win over Eddie Chambers that impresses me more.
The Russian didn’t enjoy the enormous size advantage over Chambers that Klitschko did, and Chambers is a guy who proved capable of out-boxing Sam Peter and Alexander Dimitrenko. Still, Povetkin methodically used his skill, moderate size advantage and higher work rate to earn a big points win over “Fast” Eddie. Ruiz and Vaulev might both be bigger, but both are also plodders from the “1-2-grab” school of heavyweight boxing.
Chagaev vs. Povetkin Prediction
Povetkin is noted for his fast starts and Chagaev for his general willingness to press the action (although not against Klitschko or Vaulev), so I expect sparks to fly early as both fighters try to establish their game plans. Povetkin will win that struggle for dominance. Chagaev relies on the southpaw stance, fast hands and high work rate to win. A fighter as sound as Povetkin, having worked in the gym with Teddy Atlas for years although that partnership now appears to be done with, won’t be stymied by southpaw awkwardness, and Chagaev won’t be able to out-work Povetkin.
Look to Povetkin’s solid right hand, because when he finds the mark for his lead right, Chagaev starts to lose the fight. “The White Tyson” can’t fight going backwards, so if Povetkin can defuse Chagaev’s pressure tactics with a mixture of skill and leather, Chagaev will be in for plenty of hurt. If Povetkin can’t get his game going, however, the night becomes a closer affair with a lot of give and take.
Prediction: Alexander Povetkin UD12
