With fight night around the corner, it’s time for our Cotto vs. Margarito predictions from the expert time of writers and columnists we have here on the site. How will the rematch between Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito play out? Will Cotto get his vengeance, or will Margarito restore his name? Take a look at what the team has to say here with our Cotto vs. Margarito staff picks.
—-> Of course, on fight night, you’ll need to find out who wins and how. So bookmark our live Cotto vs. Margarito results & round by round page for up to the minute coverage and updates of the entire pay-per-view.
Cotto vs. Margarito Predictions
Rich Thomas: This fight juxtaposes three questions: just how much did plaster fists figure in Margarito’s rise; just how badly damaged Miguel Cotto was by those fists; does Margarito have Cotto’s number?
Ostensibly, Margarito is the bigger guy and should adjust to fighting at 154 lbs better. However, dominating Roberto Garcia and losing to Manny Pacquiao really doesn’t say much about how “real” Antonio Margarito really is. On the other hand, I think too much is made of how “damaged” Miguel Cotto is. He was routed by Pacquiao, but put Joshua Clottey down and won a Split Decision against the tough Ghanian, and handily defeated Yuri Foreman and Ricardo Mayorga (critics think those wins should have been easier).
Cotto looks like a solid 154 pounder, and I have no doubt Margarito only won the last fight because he ground the Puerto Rican down with plaster-loaded fists.
Prediction: Cotto UD12
Scott Levinson: Cotto’s status is better-known. He’s not what he quite was, but he’s still world-class. Margarito is more the question mark. Did the whole loaded-gloves fiasco and subsequent forced sabbatical take away some of his much-needed edge? Did the Pacquiao beatdown ruin him? His eye doesn’t look that great to me. The fact that he might be damaged goods at this point is something that should at least be considered.
I don’t think any of this means he won’t give Cotto a tough fight, but can Margarito “eat lightning and crap thunder” like he used to? Is he still capable of walking through hell to come back spitting nails? Will a potentially squeamish group of NYSAC officials even allow him to try? It might not even come down to that. Despite all the histrionics, I see Cotto out-boxing Margarito over the distance. 4-5 clean shots per round will spell the difference, as a prudent Cotto takes a unanimous decision.
Prediction: Cotto UD
Read Scott’s full Cotto vs. Margarito preview & prediction here
Jake Emen: A lot has been said of Cotto’s deterioration since the first Margarito fight, both physically and psychologically. However, Margarito’s deterioration has been even more dramatic and complete. He hasn’t had a worthwhile win in the ring since the last time he beat Cotto, and the two sustained beatings he took from Shane Mosley and Manny Pacquiao have taken their toll.
The status of his eye is questionable at best – the guy won’t even take off his sunglasses during media workout sessions, while Cotto is fueled by vengeance and the fact that he feels the first fight and the beating he took was not legit, and not a real example of how they would fare against one another. If Cotto can pace himself and keep his wind, he’ll win the decision and more importantly to these guys, he’ll dole out more punishment. Knowing the limitations of that eye, and the pre-fight NYSAC license drama, the corner or referee may even stop this one if Margarito is beginning to look worse for the wear.
Prediction: Cotto via late round TKO
Brian Brown: This should be as exciting a battle as the first one. With built up animosity to fuel the fight, there could be fireworks early on. I think both fighters have the motivation to put it all on the line and could lock up a huge future fight with an impressive win. I see the action looking very similar to that of the first fight, with Cotto starting out sharp with good technical boxing and footwork, and Margarito pressing forward looking to wear Cotto down.
I would give a slight edge to Cotto this time due to the heavy backing he will have from the large fan base that will be present at MSG and the fact that Margarito will be in his first fight since the serious eye injury he suffered against Pacquiao. If Cotto can use his footwork, sharp boxing and weather the storm that Margarito is sure to bring in flurries, I think he can win enough rounds to bring this one home.
Prediction: Cotto via split decision
Ralph Rimpell: This is a crossroads fight for both fighters. If Cotto wins then he will have successfully convinced boxing writers and fans that there was no way Margarito beat him fair and square. If Margarito wins he will show the boxing world that he can beat the best fighters in the world legally. On fight night it will be the two fighters and the referee in the ring. In spite of Cotto’s partisan crowd and his motivation of revenge, Margarito will once again come out victorious. Look for a replay of the first fight. Cotto will box well and win the early rounds, but Margarito will use his height, weight, and psychology (hitting Cotto just as hard even with inspected gloves) to stop him by the 10th rd.
Prediction: Margarito KO/TKO 10
View Ralph’s full Cotto-Margarito II breakdown here
Bryan Parkhurst: The first fight was referred to by analyst Max Kellerman as a modern day classic. Given the controversy of that match and the heated interactions between both fighters in the past couple of months, this fight carries a lot more bad blood and personal issues than the first one.
It will be another war between Puerto Rico and Mexico, with Cotto getting the hometown advantage. While many people believe hometown doesn’t carry any weight in a fight, I feel that when Cotto is being pressured by Margarito and about to give in, the heavy support will be there to raise his confidence. Expect to see Cotto utilize a steady dose of jabs to that damaged right eye and a slew of left hooks. I also expect his conditioning to be better and enough for him to cruise to a unanimous decision. Personally I don’t think Cotto wants a decision and will try everything in his power to get the stoppage by targeting that eye, so I’m gonna go with Cotto by referee stoppage in the 12th.
Prediction: Cotto TKO 12
Dana Miller: This is going to be a great fight. I feel that Miguel Cotto should have won the first meeting between these two back in the summer of 2008, but Miguel simply made two mistakes that opened the door for Margarito to impose his will on him. In the first fight, Miguel did not tie up Margarito when he was countering Margarito beautifully on the inside, and Miguel was leaving himself wide open to getting hit with flush shots after he attacked instead of covering up and protecting himself. With those mistakes, alleged illegal handwraps or not, Margarito would have won their first meeting anyway.
On Saturday night, I expect for Cotto to simply outbox Margarito. This time though, I hope he covers up on the inside and ties up Margarito so that he does not get a chance to hit him with those hard will-breaking shots. Cotto, however, is known to have stamina issues, and with the relentless pressure that Margarito will bring on Saturday night, I expect the pressure to wilt Cotto a little bit. But in the end, I feel that Cotto will weatherthe Margarito storm and fight smart by jabbing the moving heavy bag and tying him up, thus, creating a rubber-match.
Prediction: Cotto by Unanimous Decision
Brandon Taylor: Cotto is the better fighter, but Margarito is tougher and just wants it so bad that you can’t stop him. Margarito has a granite chin, and if Cotto couldn’t finish him at Welterweight, he’s not going to finish him at Junior Middleweight. If Margarito has completely recovered from the Manny Pacquiao fight, then his constant pressure will once again bother Cotto. Margarito is slow, but he isn’t going to be facing the speed, angles, and possibly even power that he faced against Pacquiao. This is going to be an Angulo-Kirkland type fight, and in the end, Margarito will pull off the upset by split decision.
Prediction: Margarito by Split Decision
Final Cotto-Margarito Prediction Tally:
- Miguel Cotto: 6 – 4 by decision and 2 by stoppage
- Antonio Margarito: 2 -1 by TKO, 1 by decision
Thanks for checking out our collection of Cotto-Margarito predictions! The team is split, but most feel that Cotto has the edge here in the rematch. Either way, it should be a great night of boxing for the fans with an exciting main event and an equally exciting undercard.
