Fight Pick & Preview – Garcia vs. Matthysse:
In a fantastic matchup with the two top dogs at 140, Danny Garcia and Lucas Matthysse collide to see who is number one. This September 14 bout takes place on the Mayweather-Canelo undercard and should steal the show. Garcia is the recognized champ at this weight and makes for great fights, while Matthysse is perhaps the most feared puncher in the sport. How can this possibly go wrong?
Matthysse’s record reads 34-2, but should probably be 36-0. The decisions he lost to Devon Alexander and Zab Judah were controversial at best. Since those split decision “losses,” it’s hard to find another fighter in the sport who has been so dominant at the top level. He didn’t just beat proven talent like Humberto Soto and Lamont Peterson, but he won in virtual walkover fashion. Let’s face it, though, Garcia is on a different level than those guys.
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- Date: September 14, 2013
- Site: MGM Grand Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Weight Class: WBA and WBC Junior Welterweight Titles
- Betting Odds: Matthysse -265; Garcia +205
Danny Garcia, 26-0 (16 KOs), Philadelphia, PA
vs.
Lucas Matthysse, 34-2 (30 KOs), Buenos Aires, Argentina
[Also See: Mayweather vs. Canelo Fight Preview & Prediction]
Though he didn’t suffer any losses like Matthysse, Garcia’s trajectory has been similar. He didn’t have many people forecasting he was going to become the top guy at 140 after he narrowly beat Ashley Theophane in 2010 or after his split win over Kendall Holt in 2011. Then he routed Erik Morales in a decision, right after “El Terible” had given Marcos Maidana all he could handle. Garcia followed that up with a gigantic upset knockout over high-flying Amir Khan, before ravaging Morales in a 4-round romp in their rematch and decisioning Zab Judah in his last bout.
Garcia’s fight with Judah has played a big role in people picking Matthysse in this fight. He was doing well in dominating the Brooklyn vet, before a spirited late Judah rally made the fight close. Garcia fully deserved the win, but his inability to close the show was a little distressing. Maybe it was more of a mental letup and that’s something he can’t afford to do against Matthysse.
Garcia has great skills and is a skilled and dangerous boxer-puncher with guts and durability. Matthysse is a supreme puncher, a threat to take his man out with a single shot. And while he’s no Pernell Whitaker, he’s not some neanderthal slugger either. He gets great balance on his shots and has an ability to see things clearly in the heat of combat.
Each man still has questions looming, despite them being the clear top guys at 140. In a nutshell, their best wins have come against big names, but against fighters who were flawed. With Garcia, his reputation has been built with wins over Morales and Khan. One guy was shot (Morales) and the other (Khan), while mega-talented, isn’t very adept at absorbing a solid shot.
With Matthysse, we have been enamored with his graphic knockouts, but wins over Soto and Peterson, while impressive, do not provide a guarantee that he is some invulnerable warrior. For both, this fight represents their toughest test yet and will tell the story of which fighter is ready to for super-elite placement.
There have been some big-time matches in this division over the years. Some of them panned out and others did not. Back in the day, we had Pryor-Arguello and Chavez-Taylor–a pair of 140-pound superfights that delivered and then some. More recent 140-pound blockbusters like Tszyu-Judah and Bradley-Alexander didn’t really provide good two-way action. Look for a return to the old drama with this fight.
A lot of it comes down to Garcia’s durability. We know what he will be trying to do. The question is whether he can soldier through Matthysse’s best shots and stay on-point. I think he can take a good shot, but will need to keep it to a minimum. If Matthysse starts finding a home regularly with his hammering punches, it will take Garcia right out of his game.
While Garcia is facing a guy with menace in his fists unlike anyone he has ever faced, the same can be said for Matthysse. It’s not all about the power of the Argentine. Garcia has a deep arsenal of punches, is an accurate puncher, and should also test the resolve of Matthysse. In other words, this fight boils down to more than the power of Matthysse.
A few things about Matthysse are really impressive. He’s a knockout puncher, but he’s also loose in the ring. He carries with him a high level of relaxation into the ring. This allows him to maintain his stamina and his clear vision of the fight. I suppose you could say Garcia is better-rounded–a Philly fighter with a lot of tricks and moves in his arsenal. But Matthysse is the puncher in this fight.
Garcia vs. Matthysse Prediction
Matthysse seems to be getting better and maybe Garcia is flattening out a bit. That might be an over-generalization and their opponents have something to do with that, too. I can picture Garcia doing his thing, but at some point, the power of Matthysse will surface. It’s not that undependable kind of power, where the stars have to line up for it to happen. The power Matthysse has is just an organic part of his game, something that manifests during the normal course of a boxing match.
Matthysse is favored, but perhaps by too much at -265. I see it more as a 55-45 proposition in Matthysse’s favor. Garcia might be more complete. In addition, perhaps I’m putting too much stock in the punching power of Matthysse–the most visible, and often overstated, trait a fighter can carry with him into the ring. I still see Matthysse getting him out of there in the late rounds.
Prediction: Lucas Matthysse wins by 10th-round TKO.
