If anything good has come out of the WBC’s robbery of Timothy Bradley, it is putting Erik Morales and Lucas Matthysse into the same ring. Erik Morales proved he belongs in the Top Ten of the Light Welterweight Division by coming withing a hair’s breadth of victory against Marcos Maidana, the division’s fiercest puncher. Now he faces another hard-fighting Argentine in Lucas Martin Matthysse, who is certainly no slouch. Matthysse almost beat Zab Judah last year and then Devon Alexander this year, flooring Alexander in the process.
On the surface, Morales vs. Matthysse is a fight between two guys who come up short when faced with the true elite of their division, but in the talent-deep Light Welterweight Division, that is nothing to sneer at. Morales vs. Matthysse will take place over the vacant WBC title at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on September 17. The winner might go on to face Amir Khan next year.
Lucas Martin Matthysse (28-2-0, 26 KOs)
5’9″ tall, 69″ reach, 28 years old
Argentine
Matthysse is another world class puncher from the rugged Argentine school. Marcos Maidana is the stronger man and the bigger banger in my book, but Matthysse had enough pop to put Devon Alexander on the canvas for the first time in his career, and Matthysse is more polished than Maidana. This is so much the case that the loss to Alexander is disputed, and many observers think Matthysse should have gotten the nod for landing the cleaner, more damaging punches that night. Against Judah, Matthysse found himself stymied until the last third of the fight. That bout was also close, but Judah clearly won it.
Erik Morales (51-7, 35 KOs)
5’8″ tall, 72″ reach, 34 years old
Mexican
Former champion at super bantamweight, featherweight, super featherweight and lightweight
Erik Morales’s storied history at lower weights needs no retelling, except in one detail: “El Terrible” was always a skilled, rangy boxer who often chose to mix it up and make a trench war of it when he didn’t need to. Keeping that in mind, Morales at this stage of his career resembles Tommy Hearns at light heavyweight. Like Morales, Hearns has moved so far up in weight that he is no longer a bone-crunching puncher. However, he doesn’t need to be because he has the choice of falling back on being a rangy boxer. Even at 140 lbs, Morales is a somewhat tall fighter with long arms, and he has a cast iron chin. Yet against Maidana, Morales showed some of his old tendencies to brawl when he could have boxed. It was less pronounced, but the proud gladiator is still in Morales, and that isn’t a good thing for a man who must win on the basis of skill and guile rather than force.
Morales vs. Matthysse Preview & Analysis
Matthysse has shown himself to be the kind of fighter who can be out-boxed. Slick fighters like Devon Alexander can take him to a de facto Draw; uber-slick fighters like Zab Judah can defuse his offensive power for round after round. That points to victory for Erik Morales, except that Alexander and Judah both have faster hands than El Terrible.
One might think that Morales is going to move side-to-side on the outside of the ring and stick from a distance, but he isn’t that kind of boxer. Instead, I look for him to try to occupy the center of the ring, use small movements and his jab to stay out of danger, and score with counter-punches. Morales must avoid free exchanges at all cost. Even if he wins the exchanges, the damage he will take might cost him the fight down the road.
Matthysse needs to close the range and bully Morales out of the center, where Morales will need to use more energy to stay away. By wearing Morales down with hard blows and by making him work harder, Matthysse can set up a late round stoppage.
Morales vs. Matthysse Prediction
Matthysse tends to start slow, so I expect Morales to occupy the center ring and implement his game plan. Morales will bag round after round with crisp jabs and long counter rights. When Matthysse gets into gear, it will lead to some hotly contested rounds in the middle of the fight. At this stage, I just cannot see Morales remaining disciplined enough to avoid trading with Matthysse at some point. He won’t go to war, but he shouldn’t be trading with Matthysse for any reason whatsoever, and doing so will prove a mistake. Morales will look great in some of those exchanges, I’m sure, but he must eat some Argentine bombs, and that will cost him.
Towards the end of the fight, I see Matthysse building up enough momentum to take control of the fight, and at that point things go all-bad for Morales. He will tire more quickly, find himself pushed onto the ropes and absorbing severe punishment. Still, the wily, tough Mexican Hall of Famer won’t falter, and will end the fight with a swollen, purple face, but his head held high.
The result will be a close fight. If Matthysse can knock down Morales even once, it might be enough to clinch it for him. However, on points alone he has no chance. Morales is the bigger name, and a favorite of both Las Vegas and the WBC, fighting in front of a partisan crowd on Mexican independence day weekend to boot.
Prediction: Erik Morales in a controversial SD12
