Mayweather vs. Canelo Prediction & Fight Analysis:
We have the biggest match-up in boxing in recent memory with Floyd Mayweather and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, two fighters with a combined record of 86-0-1, tangling for all the marbles on September 14. Mayweather is the top dog in the sport and the well-supported and unbeaten Alvarez is looking to take that unofficial title.
Right here you’ll find our full Mayweather vs. Canelo prediction and fight preview. Dive in and take a look.
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- Date: September 14, 2013
- Site: MGM Grand Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Weight Class: WBC and WBA Super Welterweight Titles (Catchweight: 152 pounds)
Floyd Mayweather, Jr., 44-0 (26 KOs), Las Vegas, Nevada
vs.
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, 42-0-1 (30 KOs), Jalisco, Mexico
Mayweather vs. Canelo Preview
[Also See: The Pre-Fight Buildup, 11-City Press Conference Tour]
As is natural with a long-reigning supreme commander in the sport, his opponent is an underdog, but not one without hope. Alvarez, 23, strangely almost has as many fights as his 13-years older opponent. In Mexico, however, a young fighter can build a record like that rather quickly. Alvarez turned pro a few months after his 15th birthday and is what you would call a young veteran.
When measuring these guys up in terms of their strengths and weaknesses, we’re covering old and somewhat obvious ground. Mayweather is the speedy defensive wizard. Alvarez is more aggressive, bigger, and hits harder. Alvarez also has a cagey side and can do a sort of Mayweather impression, with an anticipatory defense and flashy movement to avoid punches. I’d expect some of that in this fight.
Against Mayweather, you need to be aggressive, but you can’t overdo it. Using different gears is probably the better move. In his last bout against Austin Trout, Alvarez proved he is beyond the average aggressive fighter banking on strength to win. There are some little wrinkles there too.
[Also See: 5 Reasons Canelo Will – or Won’t – Defeat Mayweather]
A lot of this comes down to how Alvarez will negotiate what appears to be a massive speed differential in favor of Pretty Boy Floyd. Alvarez could employ the jab, but it’s difficult to remember anyone having that much success with that punch against Mayweather. With his size advantage, you’d maybe like to see Alvarez employ a damn-the-torpedoes style and just go after Mayweather. It’s just that it takes more than a big guy wailing away without much thought to beat a guy like Mayweather.
It is going to require something different. You can’t just Rocky Balboa your way to a win over Mayweather. It’s like feeding a piece of wood into a saw. That’s what Floyd wants. Maybe the recipe is a more relaxed approach. Do what Floyd doesn’t want–lay back, be patient and try to time him. Mayweather, 36, is retreating less as he gets older, which should theoretically make it easier to time him with a big shot. The way to do that is not by just going after him in one gear, but by switching it up.
It’s just hard to pick against Floyd. The deal is that basically you pick him to win until given reason not to. When he loses, then you reassess. Before that, it’s all about trying to time the demise. If we operate under the pretense that all fighters basically hit a wall at some point, then maybe you pick a good fighter like Alvarez against a 36-year old Mayweather. But Mayweather hasn’t really shown signs of erosion. His last fight was an absolute clinic, so it’s hard to forecast a falloff taking place suddenly.
I think one of Floyd’s biggest weapons is his ego. He pride is so fierce that he just will not allow himself to lose. The key of keeping that edge is not getting bored, like when Roy Jones, Jr. seemed to lose a little interest when he got flattened by Antonio Tarver. That hasn’t happened with Floyd and it won’t for this fight. He still has that edge and that isn’t going to wane in light of this opponent.
A case can be made for Alvarez being his most dangerous opponent yet. Mayweather is facing a bigger and younger man whose best fighting looks to be ahead of him and not in the rearview mirror. One should expect some moments of difficulty for Mayweather, who won’t be able to emerge as unscathed as he did against Guerrero in his last fight.
At the end of the day, Alvarez is taking a gigantic step up in class and there was really nothing he could have done to prevent it. His list of opponents is perfectly reasonable, a gradual progression through different levels that culminated with him beating the number-two man in his weight class in Austin Trout. It’s just that he will be seeing things in the ring that he’s never seen. How will he react?
The 152 pound catchweight is a potential issue, however ridiculous it might sound to fret over a a lousy 32 ounces. On one hand, it seems like a negligible amount, but maybe it’s not for a guy like Alvarez who seems to really have to sweat down just to make 154. He comes into the ring at light heavyweight poundage, so maybe it will make a difference. Whereas the old pro can just coast through the weight issue, the younger man will have it more on his mind, as if he doesn’t have enough to ponder.
Mayweather vs. Canelo Prediction
Alvarez is the real deal. The way he handled Austin Trout rang of a certain high level of quality. The odds tell a story, as well. With a fighter like Mayweather, he’s usually favored by a ton. With the betting odds at -240 for Mayweather (or in that neighborhood) it’s obvious the wise guys in Vegas really like Alvarez’ chances. It’s almost like they’re tempting you to take Mayweather, knowing the real value lies with Alvarez.
It should be a struggle. If Mayweather can totally dominate a fighter like this with no resistance, it will be quite a surprise. I don’t see that happening. While Alvarez is a good puncher, he’s not really a one-punch guy, meaning that even if he times Mayweather with good shots, he’s gonna need to string together 2 or 3 more of those and that isn’t something anyone has been able to do yet.
Without totally ruling out the possibility that Alvarez can somehow make this happen, I see Mayweather getting through some tough moments to win a clear unanimous decision.
Prediction: Floyd Mayweather, Jr. wins by unanimous decision.
