On April 2, Giovani Segura and Ivan Calderon renew acquaintances as they battle for the WBO Light Flyweight Championship, in addition to the de facto number-one spot in the division. Calderon, 36, held onto that top spot for several years before Segura emphatically defeated him in August of last year by 8th-round knockout.
Calderon faces the unenviable task of reversing a dominant win against a younger, stronger, and bigger champion. As if he needed more to worry about, Calderon will be fighting in Segura’s home country. Unable to defeat Segura in their first fight in Calderon’s hometown of Guaynabo, the aging ex-champ really seems to be against it in this matchup.
Date: April 2, 2011
Site: Auditorio del Estado, Mexicali, Baja California, Mexico
Title: WBO Light Flyweight Championship (108 lbs.): 12 Rounds
Giovani Segura, 26-1-1 (22 KOs), Mexico/Bell, California
Vs.
Ivan Calderon, 34-1-1 (6 KOs), Guaynabo, Puerto Rico
Segura vs. Calderon II Preview
In their first bout, Calderon started well—using movement, anticipation, and speed to get the better of the very early going. Segura, however, turned it all around with a very effective strategy. He didn’t buy into Calderon’s jive tactics one bit. He punched with Calderon. Segura took what was given to him, pounding away at the body underneath the high guard of Calderon. The combination of Segura’s reach, workload, pursuit, physical strength, and rough-housing tactics provided the perfect storm to render Calderon’s boxing moot.
Calderon took a bad beating to the body in their first bout. In the 8th, he crumbled under the attack and seemed to mentally resign as he took the full count. It just seemed like Segura’s style was wrong for Calderon. Segura’s southpaw right hook landed with regularity against the fellow leftie. He looked like a bantamweight next to Calderon. Segura sapped the energy of the Puerto Rican standout, who became a sitting duck with his legs taken away from him. Segura was certainly open; making one wonder what would happen if Calderon could actually crack an egg. But in this fight, it was a wise strategy. Segura was totally indifferent about what was coming his way—instead focusing only on his offense. Against Calderon, his strategy worked to perfection.
Age, Physical Equipment, and Ringwear
Segura: Appears to be squarely in his prime at 28. Has decent size for a light flyweight, standing 5’4” with a reach of almost 70 inches. Has logged 8 years on his pro career. Has never taken a bad beating.
Calderon: Pretty ancient for a light flyweight at 36 with a long amateur career followed a decade in the pro ranks. In today’s era, it is not unusual for a fighter to succeed in his late-thirties, but Calderon is probably an old 36. The failure of his skin to hold up is usually a telltale sign of slippage. In 2008-2009, had a 3-fight stretch where his cuts led to bouts being stopped. In the first Segura fight, he seemed to have lost a step—his legs no longer like a thoroughbred’s, his chin easier to reach, and his hands no longer moving in a blur.
Style
Segura: A slugger, but one with subtle skills. Sure, he sometimes wades in without much sophistication and can be painfully easy to reach with a big shot. But when he’s on offense, he really shines. Punches accurately and with great velocity. Works the body passionately and there is no letup in his pursuit. Puts a ton of physical and mental pressure on his opponents. Has good feet, shifting to more favorable positions in order to find openings for shots.
Calderon: With 6 knockouts in 36 pro outings, one can pretty much deduce what his M.O. is. Iron Boy, at his best, depended on speed of hand and foot with his extreme gifts in the area of pure boxing. Always had an underlying air of toughness and durability, helping make him the signature fighter at 105-108 in the 2000’s.
Quality of Opposition
Segura: Fought the normal diet of journeymen on the way up, eventually graduating to main event status. First-round knockouts of Francisco Arce and Daniel Reyes underlined his explosive potential. Notched a good win in ’06 by defeating future titlist Carlos Tamara. Was on a roll before shockingly losing a clear decision to Cesar Canchila in 2008—the only quality win Canchila would ever notch. Segura emphatically disposed of Canchila in the rematch via 4th-round stoppage. Segura immediately re-established his dominance. Since the Canchila setback, has scored 7 straight knockouts, with Calderon being the only one to see the 8th round.
Calderon: While some criticize the worth of his opposition during his two championship reigns and 20 title fights, has generally fought a higher caliber of opponent than Segura. Has beaten former titleholders like Alex Sanchez, Roberto Leyva, Noel Tunacao, Daniel Reyes, Nelson Dieppa, and Rodel Mayol. Twice beat current top 115-pounder Hugo Cazares.
Previous Outing
Segura: Stayed busy with a non-title tilt against toughie Manuel Vargas in November. The pesky Vargas, who has managed to be competitive with some world-class fighters, was no match for Segura, who won every round before forcing his foe to run up the white flag after 7.
Calderon: Probably made the right move in taking an extended break after the August ’10 disaster against Segura. Will have been on the shelf for 8 months by the time he steps in the ring for Part II, but his experience makes one think the inactivity won’t be much of an issue.
Segura vs. Calderon Rematch Questions
Segura: Will he be tricked into thinking beating Calderon is a breeze? Will a slight ebb in his mental focus provide a gap that Calderon can fill? Will becoming more confident and secure in himself actually be a liability in this fight? Can he duplicate the doggedness and passion he showed in the first fight? With his last bout fought at junior bantamweight, can he still make 108 without compromising his vitality?
Calderon: Is he being written off prematurely? Is losing one fight the end of the world? Was that loss the culmination of a long erosion process that has seen Calderon struggle in some of his more recent outings? Did fighting at home, normally considered an advantage, actually have a negative effect on him? Will he be desperate and impassioned in trying to reclaim his past glory?
Segura vs. Calderon II Prediction
I do expect Calderon to be better this time around. He liked being a champion and is eager to reclaim that position and the fame and spoils that accompany it. He isn’t ready to fade into the sunset. The loss to Segura will be used as motivation for him to really concentrate his efforts—both in terms of preparation and in-ring performance. When winning is all a fighter knows, complacency has a way of naturally finding its way into a fighter’s subconscious. Sometimes losing is the only way to reclaim the focus that was so essential in having success in the first place.
It’s been done before. In 1992, Myung-Woo Yuh, a speedster and longtime 108 lb. titlist like Calderon, reclaimed the belt by reversing a loss to a talented and younger opponent in Hiroki Ioka. One might think of Chiquita Gonzalez, who switched tactics to twice reverse a catastrophic knockout loss to Michael Carbajal. However, Calderon lacks the versatility of a Chiquita Gonzalez and these fighters were also still in their twenties when they managed to turn the tables.
So while Calderon might be boxing with more sharpness and alertness, he is still facing the same problems he faced in August. He can have success against Segura, but at some point, Segura will get the more serious business done. Calderon simply cannot hold him off for 12 rounds. I suppose if Calderon caught lightning in a bottle, it isn’t unfathomable for him to box Segura’s socks off. But even if Calderon manages to diminish Segura’s dominance, it won’t be to an overly significant degree. One would expect Segura to be effective in this fight one way or another. What could really happen to make Segura go from being absolutely effective to manageable for Calderon?
One way for Calderon to win would be to ride a heightened sense of urgency to jump out to an early lead, suffer a cut not caused by a punch, and have it go to the cards after 5-6 rounds. Looking at Calderon’s track record, such a conclusion isn’t completely implausible. Outside of that scenario, Segura should win this fight. Segura will still be pursuing and in doing so will be winging to the body while showing complete disdain for anything thrown his way. Segura will step with Calderon and punch when he punches. Those long arms will be slinging shots into Calderon’s head and body, causing Calderon great discomfort.
Look for Calderon to be moderately successful for 5-6 rounds, before the pace becomes too fast for him. After 8 rounds, Calderon might even be ahead, but the momentum will be squarely with Segura. By the 10th round, Segura’s bodywork will have taken its toll. A prolonged barrage along the ropes will bring about the referee’s intervention, as a valiant Calderon is spared from further abuse.
Prediction: Giovani Segura wins by 10th-round TKO.
