James Kirkland vs. Carlos Molina Preview & Prediction

Perhaps no one was more shocked by Nobihiru Ishida’s knockout victory over James Kirkland than was James Kirkland, himself. Seemingly on the fast track to superstardom in the junior middleweight ranks, Kirkland was stopped cold by Ishida last April and everything that was once thought a certainty about the tough-as-nails Texan suddenly was in disarray. Was Kirkland as good as his then-previously 27-0 record indicated? Would he even be capable of responding to such an unexpected upset? Some doubt was erased shortly thereafter, with Kirkland fighting three times in ten months.  In those three fights since the loss to Ishida, Kirkland has gone 3-0, winning two by TKO, including his Fight of the Year type effort over Alfredo Angulo, and flooring Dennis Sharpe in the third.

Had James Kirkland not suffered the setback against Ishida, Carlos Molina may easily be viewed as stepping into a mismatch, regardless of the success he’s enjoyed of late. With an entertaining and technically sound draw against Proboxing-fans.com’s #3 ranked Junior Middleweight Erislandy Lara and victories over Allen Conyers and Kermit Cintron, Molina is suddenly a much more dangerous fighter. A very physical and unpredictable Junior Middleweight, Molina poses the potential to be a major disruptive force in Kirkland’s attempted resumption of division prominence.

The Pugs and The Prize

• When: March 24, 2012
• Where: Reliant Arena, Houston, Texas
• Card: WBC Super Lightweight champion Erik Morales defends against Danny Garcia. This match will be a WBC semi-final eliminator with the winner squaring off with Vanes Martirosyan in a final eliminator.

Kirkland vs. Molina Preview

Kirkland cannot suffer another defeat and be considered a serious contender to Junior Middleweight gold. Molina will provide a stiff test, and he has to not only fare well, but also look good doing it. The more convincing the victory, the better Kirkland will come off in the eyes of both the analysts and fans that follow the sport, as well as the promoters looking to put him in bigger matches. Kirkland has only been in two matches in his career that have gone to the cards, meaning he doesn’t like to leave the result of a match in the hands of anyone other than himself, and you can look for him to attempt the same with Molina

With a win, Molina would skyrocket to the top of the division and should be mentioned in the same breath as Saul Alvarez and the incredible, disappearing Sergiy Dzinziruk. His draw with Lara was widely viewed as a bigger step in his career than the victory over a game, but overmatched, Kermit Cintron.  Molina is at 28 facing a crossroads in his career. He has finally been garnering some attention and recognition, but still isn’t a big name, and has been passed over for high profile matches. Therefore, a loss to Kirkland would likely immediately send him to the back of the pack. A win elevates Molina to a level he has yet to experience which, in and of itself, will provide a whole slew of new challenges.

The Analysis

The big punching Kirkland will look to start quickly and rely on the hard sweeping left hook to rock Molina.  He has incredibly quick hands and really uses his jab effectively to set up his other punches, most notably the straight left.  Kirkland will try to take the fight to the inside against the equally as dangerous puncher, Molina.  The plan will be to do this in order to force Molina to step into a stifling uppercut between his elbows.  With Molina, the plan will be to strike at the head as much as possible to have “King” raise his hands and expose his midsection.  Kirkland will be looking knockout all the way with the orthodox Molina leaning after every jab, but don’t discount the body work. It doesn’t have to be pretty, only effective.

Molina has an unusual step/bounce tell when throwing his left hook, which the quick throwing Kirkland will have no doubt scouted and developed a counter to by March.  Accounting for defensive adjustments, Molina’s tell is nowhere near as dangerous to his wellbeing than is the propensity for his body to follow a punch.  He may lead with his fist, but the rest of him is not too far behind.  This often leads to the reactionary defense that all boxers are taught early in their careers: the grab and tie up.  Although not pleasing to the fans, this strategy actually has saved Molina’s tail more often than not and allowed him to break up the flow of a fight as is his wont. Still, his offense is effective enough that Kirkland would be well advised to not allow Molina to fight his game.  Relies on effective combinations and disrupting his opponent’s offense by any means necessary.

Kirkland vs. Molina Prediction

True to form, Kirkland is going to go back to what used to work for him: coming out like a house on fire and bringing the offense to Molina, early. He may end up chasing more than he’s striking, although Molina is not one to avoid striking in the middle of the ring.  He will use the first couple of rounds to wear down Molina, being mindful to not empty the reserve until its time. Throughout, expect him to be looking for Molina’s exposed chin following a jab. The powerful southpaw will look to exploit this natural advantage and tag Molina’s chin with a left hook.  If he knocks down Molina early, expect the fury with which he starts the fight to intensify further with thoughts of ushering the “King” to a ten second nap.

If Molina can withstand the early onslaught, and be extraordinarily mindful of the southpaw Kirkland’s strong left hook on the counter, he should be able to settle into the middle rounds nicely. Molina is a heavy puncher and a very disruptive force.  Look for him to grab, hold and strike as often as possible.  He’ll stand toe-to-toe on the inside and wage his uppercuts against Kirkland’s.  If he can hold tight to his chin and not allow Kirkland to sneak fists past his defense, it will end up a very competitive bout and increase his odds of success.  He’s a very tough out for Kirkland, although if Molina continues to lead with his chin—especially against a southpaw—he could be seeing the canvas early in the fight.

Look for a hungry and appropriately desperate Kirkland—reunited with trainer Ann Wolfe—to get the opening he seeks and send Molina to the canvas in this one.

Prediction: Kirkland by TKO in the fifth round