Fight Pick & Preview – Pascal vs. Bute:
It’s a crosstown rivals in Montreal match on January 18, 2014, when Jean Pascal dukes it out with Lucian Bute live on HBO. Pascal vs. Bute was set to take place on May 25, but was postponed after Bute hurt his left hand.
By the time the fight happens, boxing fans will have been waiting ten months. What can they expect from this pair of former champions, and what (if anything) has changed since Spring 2013?
Jean Pascal (28-2-1, 17 KOs)
5’10 1/2″, 72″ reach, 31 years old
Haitian-Canadian
Former WBC Light Heavyweight Title
Pascal hasn’t been the busiest of fighters since his WBC championship. Since his 2011 loss of the title to Bernard Hopkins (who went on to lose it and then pick up the IBF belt in the meantime!), he has fought two journeymen. By the time he gets to Bute, Pascal will have had only two “gimme” fights in two and a half years. Thankfully, the most recent of the pair was in September, so he will only be a little rusty.
Pascal’s style isn’t exactly subtle. He is a swarmer, a guy who wins by going forward and landing punches in bunches. As such, he relies mainly on hand speed, durability, and stamina. Only the former is likely to have suffered from inactivity, but against Bute that might matter.
Lucian Bute (31-1-0, 24 KOs)
6’1″ tall, 72″ reach, southpaw, 33 years old
Romanian-Canadian
Former IBF Super Middleweight Champion, Current NABF Light Heavyweight Champion
If Pascal is a little rusty, Bute is weighed down by doubts. After being crushed by Carl Froch, he moved up to 175 lbs and then struggled hard against Denis Grachev. It is now very firmly established that Bute has a merely average chin, and questions remain as to whether Le Tombeur suffers in the confidence department after getting bitten by the Cobra.
Should his confidence be restored, Bute can pose a serious threat to Pascal. He is fast, likely faster than Pascal, and has good power. His southpaw boxer-puncher ways allowed him to shield that chin while waging aggressive war on his opponents, putting the hurt down without unduly mixing it up. A guy like that could stymie Pascal, if he has the stones for it.
Pascal vs. Bute Analysis
One thing that jumps out at me here is which factor is more important: Pascal’s inactivity or Bute’s shaky self-esteem. I’d give odds that Bute’s psyche is the thing in worse shape. To keep a busy, aggressive guy like Pascal back, Bute will need to punch with authority. His style relies on safety through the skillful and mobile use of artillery, and not on artillery alone. If he is at all hesitant, Pascal will jump on him.
For his part, Pascal has taken the best Carl Froch could throw at him (albeit the 2008 version of Froch) and didn’t falter. Bute might be able to give Pascal pause, but not cause to slow down or stumble. While Pascal is a grinder and not a banger, he can certainly hurt Bute if he is allowed to get stuck in, stay in, and accumulate the leather contact.
Pascal vs. Bute Prediction
As it has literally been years since Pascal has been in the ring against top-flight competition, I expect him to have trouble getting his game going early on, despite his usual pattern of storming out and getting busy. He just isn’t used to someone as fast or as powerful as Bute anymore, but how long Pascal’s fits last depend greatly on whether Bute can muster up some world class confidence. The less of it he has, the sooner Pascal starts landing.
To win this fight, Bute would need to be in top form, both physically and psychologically. I don’t believe that he is. I see Pascal breaking through, taking control, and staying there after the first few stanzas. He’ll wear Bute down for the win.
Prediction: Jean Pascal TKO9 Lucian Bute
