Linares vs. Juarez Crossroads Battle
The undercard fight for the July 31st Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Juan Diaz II is an intriguing match-up between a man with something to prove and one of the super featherweight division’s most rugged contenders. On the one hand is a Jorge Linares, a man who once had a bright future in boxing, but is now coming back from a devastating knockout defeat. On the other is Rocky Juarez, a man who has given some of the biggest names in his weight class all the trouble they could handle and who now stands at the crossroads of his career.
Jorge Linares (28-1, 18 KOs)
5’8 1/2″ tall, 68″ reach, 24 years old
Venezuelan living in Japan
Former featherweight and super featherweight champion
Jorge Linares was once a hard-punching, rising star on the Japanese boxing circuit. He won the WBC featherweight title by knocking out the solid Oscar Larios before moving up to claim the WBA super featherweight title. Linares was on a roll of title claims and defenses, winning them all by knockout. Then he met Juan Carlos Salgado and was crushed by a single left hook in the 1st Round. Salgado immediately dropped the title to hometown fighter Takashi Uchiyama, so the man is clearly no world beater. Despite the good start, such a loss raises real questions about whether Linares really can compete at the top of the game.
Rocky Juarez (28-6-1, 20 KOs)
5’5″ tall, 69″ reach, 30 years old
Mexican-American
Rocky Juarez is the kind of guy who has never won a title only because of the golden names who stood in his way. If he had been a few years older or younger, the path to a world championship would have been wide open for him. This durable, determined character comes to fight, has good power and a decent tool kit. He owns wins over former champ Guty Espadas and plenty of tough journeymen, and gave hard fights to Humberto Soto, Marco Antonio Barrera. Juan Manuel Marquez and Chris John, however, did very well against him.
He suffered a decision loss in his last outing too, but that should be looked at as a fluke. Opponent Jason Litzau developed a bad mouse under his eye from an accidental head butt, so when the bout was stopped it went to the scorecards, where Litzau was just barely ahead (by only one point on two scorecards).
Linares vs. Juarez Preview and Analysis
It is reasonable to ask of Jorge Linares “is he really all that?” He can clearly punch, but he has never tested that power against a guy known for having a concrete chin. Furthermore, it is plain that Linares has at least a suspect chin. However, it is also reasonable to ask “how much does Juarez have left in the tank?”. Chris John owns a 1-0-1 record over Juarez, although that should really be 2-0 and both of those decisive victories. The Litzau bout was a technical loss, so one could argue that Juarez wasn’t really beaten. Yet it is not like Jason Litzau is a great fighter, so what was he doing leading Juarez at the time of the stoppage, even by a razor-thin margin?
The rule about fights between guys who can punch is to always pick the guy who catches better, and that is unquestionably Juarez. Juarez might be fraying around the edges, but he shows no signs of being truly shopworn and it is hard to imagine Linares denting him. However, after Rocky Juarez soaks up the artillery, the second step to a resounding victory is lacking in him.
Juarez just doesn’t seem to know when or how to adjust his game plan or step things up a notch and push the other guy over the edge. If he is going to get him out of there, it has to be early. I think Juarez knows that too, and also realizes he hasn’t got another chance at the brass ring. If he loses this fight, he becomes a permanent gatekeeper.
Rocky Juarez will come out early and push the action, looking to ding Juarez from the opening bell and test that chin. Linares, who has been tentative and impersonating Arthur Abraham’s guard since losing to Salgado, will be flustered. If Linares covers up, Juarez will be able to pitch wide, hard hooks to the body from the outside, and it’s a target he cannot possibly miss. Linares will cover up and get roughed up, riding out the storm.
At that point, when Rocky should shift from third gear and into fourth, he will instead plow down the same steady groove. Linares will then find his legs and use his vastly superior handspeed to start picking counters off to Juarez’s head (Juarez has the longer arms, but Linares is much taller). Still, it won’t be easy to come back from dropping so many of the early rounds, and Juarez will remain game-if-plodding throughout.
Linares vs. Juarez Prediction: Jorge Linares SD10
