Although it remains unclear whether Chavez is defending his WBC Middleweight Title on February 4th, or even if Chavez will still have the title, it is clear that his clash with Marco Antonio Rubio is going ahead anyway. This all-Mexican clash at the Alamodome in San Antonio features two middleweight contenders who are most likely underrated.
For his part, the champion is widely derided as only having gone right to the WBC’s green strap because of his famous name, pointedly avoiding top opposition along the way. Marco Antonio Rubio was not well-regarded until April 2011, when he shocked the sport by upsetting and stopping undefeated David Lemieux. Now ranked #6 and #5 respectively, Chavez and Rubio are finally getting their due, and whoever wins February 4th can surely expect to be taken much seriously in the future.
Marco Antonio Rubio (53-5-1, 46 KOs)
5’10”, 70″ reach, 31 years old
Mexican
Former Mexican Light Middleweight and Middleweight Champion
Rubio is a rugged Mexican boxer-puncher who can crack with both hands. Against the highly-touted Lemieux (Rubio was an 8-1 underdog in that fight), “El Veneo” used good defense and a stiff jab to keep the Canadian banger at bay and look for opportunities to safely retaliate. In addition to good power and good skills, Rubio also has a solid chin. He slugged with Kelly Pavlik, and while his corner threw in the towel in the 9th, Rubio was still on his feet at the end of the night. Rubio absorbed Lemieux’s onslaught as well.
Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. (44-0-1, 31 KOs)
6’0″, 73″ reach, 25 years old
Mexican
Current (fake)* WBC Middleweight Champion
Chavez proved himself as a well-rounded, solid boxer-puncher last year. He has gone from feasting on John Duddy to knocking out Peter Manfredo, Jr. and eeking out a decision over Sebastian Zbik. He has a busy, come-forward style aimed at maximizing his strength and hitting power, and marked by good footwork.
Although his defense isn’t the best, Chavez has shown a durable chin thus far. He gets hit, but not with anything that has shaken him to the ankles yet. The Zbik fight in particular proved that good boxers won’t stall him (at least not from the stand-up Continental school).
Chavez Jr. vs. Rubio Preview & Analysis
Chavez is the younger, quicker man in this match-up, and I think he is also the more confident and even slightly more experienced than Rubio. After all, while El Veneo is riding a wave right now, JCC, Jr. is undefeated and solidifying his place in the division. Although Rubio has fought more names, he has lost to all of them except Lemieux, while Chavez remains undefeated. Rubio and Chavez are about equal in the power department.
The only area where Rubio has a clear cut advantage over Chavez is durability and chin. Chavez hasn’t been phased by anything thrown at him so far, but the hardest banger he has fought was John Duddy, who frankly isn’t a big puncher. Rubio has eaten punches from Kelly Pavlik and David Lemieux, and both of those men hit harder than Chavez (in Pavlik’s case, much harder). I therefore doubt Chavez has anything that will phase Rubio.
Chavez Jr. vs. Rubio Prediction
In a battle between two boxers, you pick the slicker guy. In a battle between two punchers, you pick the best catcher. What about a battle between two boxer-punchers?
The smart play for Chavez is to use his superior movement to stay away from Rubio, and pot shot from a distance. Despite his defensive deficits, Chavez has the speed and mobility to outbox Rubio, who can’t simply bowl in there due to Chavez’s power. However, Chavez doesn’t have macht to stop Rubio from following him around, and the older Mexican has a good jab of his own and solid point defense. I expect Rubio to start catching Chavez and opening up on him after a couple of rounds, and sooner or later one of two things will happen: either Chavez will go from sticking and moving to getting on his bicycle and running, or a brawl will break out.
Who wins this fight depends entirely on when that brawl starts and how long it lasts. If the two Mexicans go to war in the center-ring early, or if Chavez isn’t able to take control of the fight back, Rubio will exploit Chavez’s porous defense to win rounds and possibly even win by knockout. If Chavez can stymie Rubio for most of the fight, or can take back control of the action after losing it, he can box his way into winning most of the rounds.
It’s a close fight to call, but I favor Chavez by a nose.
Prediction: Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. SD12 Marco Antonio Rubio
* Chavez, Jr.’s reign as WBC Middleweight Champion will remain open to question until he meets and defeats the man his title was stolen from, Sergio Martinez.
