Most boxing fans have a “love ’em or hate ’em” attitude about Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. The “hate ’em” crowd can’t stand the plain fact that Chavez has gotten much farther on his family name and connections than on his boxing ability, having “won” a world championship with a resume that boasts wins over a mere two fringe contenders (John Duddy and Sebastian Zbik).
Even so, Chavez’s November 19th title defense against Peter Manfredo, Jr. promises to be an entertaining match-up. Even if you don’t think much of Chavez’s middleweight title, the meeting between these two boxing legacies promises plenty of action.
Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. (43-0-1, 30 KOs)
6’0″ tall, 73″ reach, 25 years old
Mexican
(Fake) WBC Middleweight Champion
Although much-maligned for riding on his illustrious father’s coattails, Chavez, Jr. has actually grown into a legitimate contender, albeit one who belongs in the bottom half of the Top 10. Chavez is a busy, come-forward fighter with a good chin, good power and above average mobility. However, his defense is imperfect to say the least, and while many aspects of Chavez’s game are good, it must be said that no part of his boxing package is great.
Peter Manfredo, Jr. (37-6, 20 KOs)
5’10” tall, 30 years old
American
Former NABF and current IBO Middleweight Titleholder
Manfredo has come full circle in recent years. He started his boxing career at middleweight, dropped down to light middleweight, then shot up to super middleweight before finally returning back to 160 lbs. The Pride of Providence is a fringe contender at best, having lost every fight with anyone who was even remotely world class. He has fast hands and likes letting them go, and brings above average boxing ability to the ring.
Manfredo is a voluntary defense for Chavez, and it is easy to see why Chavez’s matchmakers chose Manfredo as an opponent. While Manfredo is noted for his boxing ability, it is doubtful he will get on a bicycle to circle and jab all night. He might buttress his defense with sound footwork, but Manfredo won’t use wide movements to do it. These two will stay in range or just outside of range, and plenty of leather will fly.
Chavez Jr. vs. Manfredo Prediction & Analysis
As the fight with Sebastian Zbik showed, a busy fighter who is willing to throw punches freely will land plenty of leather on Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. Peter Manfredo is in roughly the same boxing ballpark as Zbik, and more fluid than Zbik to boot.
However, the other side of that is when Zbik was landing on Chavez, he was also there to receive in turn. If Manfredo goes in with his usual game plan, Chavez will land fewer-but-heavier blows, ultimately breaking Manfredo down. If Manfredo decided to adopt a more mobile strategy, the fight won’t be half as entertaining, but Chavez still has the mobility to catch up with him and put some hurt down.
I’m banking on the former, more action-packed scenario, but either way Chavez will gather momentum as the fight progresses and bag a majority of rounds. However, I don’t see Chavez as having the sheer one-punch power to stop Manfredo, so the bout will go to the cards.
Prediction: Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. UD12
