The top ranks of the heavyweight division have gelled into two fights so serendipitous as to almost look like a tournament. On September 28 in Manchester, David Haye and Tyson Fury clash in an all-British big guys bout. A week later on October 5, Wladimir Klitschko travels to Alexander Povetkin’s backyard of Moscow in a fight that sees Big Wlad, the IBF-(real) WBA-WBO champion, square off with Povetkin, the (fake) WBA belt-holder.
The outcome of one of these bouts will establish the top British heavyweight at a time when the big man’s division in the UK has been very busy. The Moscow bout will naturally either confirm the reigning World Heavyweight Champion, or crown a new one. Since the winner of the Manchester fight will become the natural and popular challenger for the winner of the Moscow fight, the tournament aspects of boxing’s early autumn schedule becomes clear.
Klitschko vs. Povetkin
I start with Dr. Steelhammer vs. the Russian Vityaz because it is the match that is easiest to call: Klitschko the Younger is going to pummel Povetkin from pillar to post. Given how impressive Tony Thompson has been looking lately, not even a pinch of a case can be made for Wladimir slowing down at age 37. He has his method, and the size, power, and athletic ability to apply it are all still in place.
Alexander Povetkin is a medium-sized heavyweight and a boxer-puncher, and guys like that are meat and potatoes for Klitschko. Add to that the chaos in Povetkin’s camp — the Russian heavyweight has parted company with manager Vlad Hrunov and lost the services of Freddie Roach — and his downfall becomes as certain as anything in boxing can be.
Haye vs. Fury
Some pundits think Haye will do to Fury what Tony Thompson did to David Price, but I’m not so sure. After all, Fury was the guy who took Dereck Chisora’s “0” away from him back in 2011, and Chisora went on to become the most rough and tumble slugger in British heavyweight boxing. The Hayemaker has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is a whole order of magnitude better than Chisora, but add to that Fury’s win over able boxer Steve Cunningham, and I think it’s safe to say that Fury won’t fold up under pressure.
On the other hand, Haye has a mixed record at handling giants. He eeked out a marginal win over the ponderous Nikolai Vaulev, and crushed the hapless Audley Harrison. Tyson Fury might be raw in some respects, but he is neither ponderous or hapless. Fury is going to give Haye the toughest test of his career, and overcoming a game, capable super heavyweight who doesn’t mind mixing it up is both a blessing and a curse for Haye. On the one hand, Fury should give Haye the opportunity to use his hand speed and explosive power to make a fight of it; on the other, Fury’s size, heft, and power might prove too much for Haye. I favor Haye, but only by a little.
The Winners Bracket
In my mind, that Klitschko will be in the winner’s bracket and waiting for a suitable challenger from Britain is a done deal. The question is who will meet him and how will they do? If Haye can get past Fury, certainly he will have shown more promise in applying his agility and speed to neutralize a giant’s size and reach advantages, and that at least promises that the rematch with Wlad will be more entertaining than the first fight was.
Fury has a slight chance of using his massive “oomph” to push through Klitschko’s polished and measured technique, and thereby make a fight of it. Should that happen, I see Wlad going to the canvas just like he used to. Such an outcome is possible, but unlikely.
Ultimately, what these two fights promise are some sustained heavyweight fireworks, not the end of Wladimir Klitschko’s reign as World Heavyweight Champion. Klitschko vs. Povetkin might turn into a snoozer, but Fury vs. Haye won’t be, and the winner of the British square-off will surely try to get in the ring with Big Wlad and give him a real fight.
