Some are calling November 5th the “Super Six Part II,” as that night features two top quality, super middleweight championship bouts after the Super Six Finals bout crowns a tournament winner and top dog in the division: the headlining bout of Lucian Bute vs. Glen Johnson and from across the globe, Mikkel Kessler vs. Robert Stieglitz. In the main event, the rugged and age-defying Johnson travels to Quebec City to challenge IBF champ Bute in his own backyard. Bute is already slated to meet the winner of the Super Six Final, but a loss might upset the plans of a fighter who has pursued his career through the path of least resistance. For Johnson, a victory means capturing a world title and adding more momentum to his amazing late-career hurrah.
Glen Johnson (51-15-2, 35 KOs)
5’11” tall, 75″ reach, 42 years old
Jamaican living in America
Former Light Heavyweight Champion
The Road Warrior’s career has seen its share of twists and bends. In the late 1990s, he was a middleweight and super middleweight journeyman and “opponent,” brought into big fights to put on a big show, but ultimately to lose with dignity. He then moved up to light heavyweight, but continued to toil in the roll of foil for other boxers, and most of his losses stem from this 1997-2003 period. Johnson persevered, however, and more importantly he improved. By 2004 he had a 175 lbs title and was in just the right place, at just the right time, and with just the right style to feast on the withered remains of a comebacking Roy Jones, Jr.
For the rest of the decade, Johnson’s indomitable will and hard-fighting pressure tactics made him a light heavyweight fixture, winning some and losing some, until the offer to participate in the Super Six came along. He promptly went back down to 168 lbs and looks set to end his career around where he started it.
Lucian Bute (29-0, 24 KOs)
6’1 1/2″, 72″, 31 years old
Romanian living in Canada
Current IBF Super Middleweight Champion
Lucian Bute is a well-rounded, confident and able boxer-puncher and making the 9th defense of his IBF crown on November 5th. However, Bute can rightfully be accused of avoiding tough opposition in building his reputation as a well-established champion. The “names” on his resume are either faded (Edison Miranda, William Joppy), tough-but-limited (Saiko Bika, Librado Andrade), or protected and inflated (Jean Paul Mendy). Bute had the opportunity to fight in the Super Six, but preferred instead to sit it out and angle for a shot at the ultimate winner. His strategy has worked, but the contrast between Bute’s resume and that of Andre Ward and especially Carl Froch could not be starker.
Bute vs. Johnson Analysis
On paper, Lucian Bute should out-point Glen Johnson handily. Bute has the right combination of speed, skill, poise and style to deflect Johnson’s swarming tactics for most of the 12 rounds of the fight, using a crisp jab to hold back the Road Warrior and deftly counter-punching to score meaningful blows.
That said, Bute is somehow in his 9th title defense without ever having faced a top-tier contender. This is a dangerous thing for a boxer operating near the top of his division, and one wonders why Lucian Bute’s matchmaker would protect him so if there were not some chink in his armor?
We have no idea how Bute will respond when severely tested. The closest he has come thus far was when he was nearly knocked out by Librado Andrade in the 12th Round of their first encounter, but Bute was saved by the final bell in that fight. He did not have to suck it up and gut it out for round after round, waiting for his legs to solidify and fending off a guy intent on putting him back on the canvas. Real adversity has not figured in Bute’s career thus far, and getting into a tough spot against a man like Glencoffe Donovan Johnson could prove disastrous. A tried-and-tested Bute could probably find his way out of trouble, but a befuddled, hurt and surprised Bute? It’s the big question mark hanging over “Le Tombeur.”
Bute vs. Johnson Prediction
I expect Bute will be successful in out-jabbing and out-maneuvering Johnson, keeping him at bay for the most part. However, this will not be the drubbing Bute handed to Librado Andrade, since even a 42 year old Johnson has more ability to go to the trenches than Bute has ever seen. In 2005, I would have picked Johnson to kick Bute’s ass. In 2011, even though I see Johnson roughing Bute up from time to time, and maybe even making a contest out of it for a few rounds, Bute’s savage body punching will take a serious toll on Johnson.
In the long run, it will be Johnson who suffers more from his pressure tactics than Bute, since either in the exchanges or off of counters, I expect Bute to leave welts and bruises all up and down Johnson’s rib cage. Bute will build up momentum as Johnson, old and body-snatched, slows down, enabling the Romanian-Canadian to score a clean points victory.
Prediction: Lucian Bute UD12
