Fight Pick & Preview – Pacquiao vs. Rios:
On November 23, boxing superstar Manny Pacquiao makes his return to the ring after a year absence to face former lightweight titleholder Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios. Pacquiao is in a unique position for him, where he has to bounce back from a bad loss. For that reason, this is one of his more important fights, despite Rios not being one of his better opponents.
Pacquiao’s matchmaking team got one right by picking Rios. If only they were as smart at matchmaking before now and we might not be in this position. To keep fighting Marquez was a bad miscalculation. Pac Man could have just left well enough alone and let Marquez be Ken Norton to his Muhammad Ali. But Pacquiao kept giving him chances until Marquez finally won. Just plain dumb.
- Date: November 23, 2013
- Site: Venetian Resort, Macau, China
- Weight Class: Welterweights: 12 Rounds
Manny Pacquiao, 54-5-2 (38 KOs), General Santos City, Philippines
vs.
Brandon Rios, 31-1-1 (23 KOs), Oxnard, CA
Check out the latest Pacquiao vs. Rios betting odds
Rios is a fighter Pacquiao can shine against in the ring. He’s never fought at welterweight before, he’s coming off a loss, and is right in Manny’s wheelhouse stylistically. He moves forward and he is available to be hit. He’s not particularly fast and not even close to being as sharp as Manny with his hands. Though only 27, all the wars and titanic struggles to make weight have perhaps depleted him. In his last fight, a decision loss to Mike Alvarado, he looked to be waning as a force in the ring.
So Pacquiao should beat him. And he should do so brutally in a way that makes him look good again. But then it’s hard to ignore Pacquiao’s last result. It’s one thing for a top fighter to absorb a loss in his mid-thirties and even for them to get stopped. It’s just hard to remember a fighter at this stage of his career be rendered unconscious in the ring and then bounce back to accomplish something special. Offhand, no names really come to mind. Can you name a championship fighter at this age who suffered that fate and came back to do big things?
Pacquiao has accomplished everything possible. His legacy is secure. But he’s arrived at that point that all greats eventually meet, where thoughts of his greatness and explosiveness are now mixed by concern and looming questions. Fighters who are in their mid-thirties with 17 years of pro boxing on their odometer don’t generally get better–especially in the punch resistance department.
Sure, Pacquiao got hit with the perfect shot by Marquez. It still serves to raise issues regarding his chin, in addition to the fact that opponents will now be emboldened by Marquez’ success. Look for future opponents to try to exploit that. No matter how bad it’s going, they will be thinking they’re only one shot away from turning it around.
The danger in this fight lies in the intangibles. From a sheer handicapping perspective, Pacquiao is too everything for Brandon Rios. He’s faster, throws a harder punch, has better footwork, uses positioning better, is harder to hit, is better acclimated to the weight, etc. At 27, Pacquiao wasn’t losing to guys like Mike Alvarado. He wasn’t needing judges to help him escape with a win against the likes of Richard Abril. Pacquiao has already scaled the heights that Rios will never see.
That’s not to condemn Rios as a fighter. Boxing needs more guys like “Bam Bam,” action-oriented fighters who perform with pride and a certain disregard to their personal safety. He’s a true fighter in the highest form of the term. The Texas-born Oxnard resident is a talented young man who has built a nice following in southern California and deserves a fight like this, albeit maybe not right after suffering the first defeat of his career.
Even if Rios’ cause fails to hold up when handicapping the fight, he has some things going for him. He doesn’t have to worry about weight, which always seems to leave him a depreciated force in the ring. Beyond that, he is facing a superstar fighter who when last seen in the ring was unconscious and on his face.
One shouldn’t expect Pacquiao to end up like Roy Jones. Once Jones’ chin was exposed, it seemed like any solid contact would send him into dreamland. Opponents who were at one time hesitant to get hit by Jones started taking more chances in an effort of connecting and ending the fight. And that’s how it happens. The chin is no longer the shock-absorber of old and opponents are gunning for it exponentially more. That equation usually leads to a great boxer landing on hard times at the end of his career–almost a rite-of-passage for all-time great Hall of Famers like Pacquiao.
There were many reasons why Pacquiao became better and better as he rose up in weight. Chief among them is how he became a master of position and distance. He would always seem to be exactly where he needed to be in order to minimize danger while still being able to inflict damage. One punch doesn’t change that. If anything, it may only serve to heighten his awareness in those categories. Sure, expect his offense to be dynamic and pleasing to watch. Also expect a heavy dose of purposeful movement and more attacking from angles.
The punch that turned out Pacquiao’s lights was an aberration of sorts. Nothing happens by accident in this sport. Still, a repeat of that is not something you can bank on, especially when the punches are being thrown by Brandon Rios and not Marquez.
Pacquiao vs. Rios Prediction
If there were ever a time to bet on Pacquiao, I suppose now would be the time. Then again, with Rios only a +360 underdog, it’s clear the oddsmakers have figured in the factor that Pacquiao has entered an iffy phase of his career. Two years ago, Rios as he is now would have been an 8 or 10/1 underdog. Manny will be weeks removed from his 35th birthday by fight-night, with a championship pedigree that reaches back into the 90’s. Combine that with the year-long layoff and coming off a KO loss, taking Rios to win isn’t the craziest stance to take. History sort of favors it actually.
I just don’t see it. If Rios had 40+ rounds to get a big punch across like Marquez did, then maybe. But in this single 12-rounder, I see Pacquiao having his way and I don’t think it goes the distance. Pacquiao’s pronounced advantage in speed will be telling. Rios’ heart will serve him well, even as his face doesn’t oblige. Cuts and swelling will render Rios a diminished force by the 7th, with Pacquiao closing escrow by the 9th round.
Prediction: Manny Pacquiao wins by 9th round knockout.
