Pacquiao vs. Algieri Fight Analysis:
On November 22nd, Manny Pacquiao (56-5-2, 38 KOs) takes on Chris Algieri (20-0, 8 KOs) at the Cotai Arena, Venetian Resort in Macao. It will be the second time Pacquiao has fought at this arena having done so in beating Brandon Rios late last year and, just as he was on that occasion, Pacquiao is a huge favorite.
Can Algieri pull off a massive upset, or will Pacquiao retain his status as one of boxing’s finest? Read on for a full preview and prediction for the fight.
Physical
Little scrutiny is necessary when comparing the physical characteristics of Algieri and Pacquiao. Clearly, Algieri is the far taller man standing at 5’10”, while Pacquiao looks up at him at 5’6½”. Algieri’s physical dominance is further confirmed by his longer reach.
Algieri’s height and reach are key facets of his style. He is pure boxer lacking in genuine power and as such his long limbs are crucial in maintaining distance between him and stronger opponents. This was evident in his breakout win over Ruslan Provodnikov – the victory that set up this opportunity against Pacquiao.
Also evident in that win was Algieri’s durability. Not only did he successfully complete the full twelve rounds at an unabating pace set by the relentless Russian, he managed to endure heavy punishment that caused severe swelling around his right eye. Willpower can only take you so far in boxing, so clearly Algieri has a strong chin and a good engine as well.
Talk of engines segues nicely into a discussion of Pacquiao, whose fire no longer burns with quite the same ferocity as before.
Years of fighting world class opposition while utilizing his signature attacking style has taken its toll on the Filipino. This, along with a rise through the weight classes, a burgeoning political career and a brutal knockout at the hands of Juan Manuel Marquez, mean this version of Pacquiao is more thoughtful and less aggressive.
Now closer to 40 than 30, Pacquiao’s physical prime is a distant memory. He sets a slower pace and hasn’t scored a knockout in five years. He is still the bigger puncher here though, and most likely the busier man in this particular fight.
Mental
Algieri has experienced a rapid rise to prominence in a condensed period of time. In February of this year he defeated Emanuel Taylor on ESPN’s Friday Night Fights. That led to his upset win over Provodnikov, who was himself being lined up as Pacquiao’s next opponent.
Prior to 2014, nobody knew Algieri. Now he is squaring off against one of the greatest boxers of all time. He has gone twelve rounds only once and has never fought outside of New York. Preparation for this fight is thus almost as much a case of combating mental pressures as it is drawing up a tactical game plan or maximizing physical fitness.
Algieri has already proven himself in this department, however. Negotiating two early knockdowns, a near-closed eye and Provodnikov’s frenzied attacks was a trial by fire to both the 12-round distance and a big fight atmosphere. Algieri’s survival and subsequent victory tells us a lot about his mental fortitude.
For Pacquiao, this represents the third fight in his comeback trail since his violent humbling at the hands of Marquez. He seems to have recovered well from that defeat, but this fight is undoubtedly the lowest profile contest Pacquiao has signed up for since he moved up to the welterweight class.
On the back of a rematch victory over Timothy Bradley, how could Pacquaio possibly be fully motivated for this fight? The general consensus is that this fight is one-sided, and talk of a long-awaited fight with Floyd Mayweather won’t have aided Pacquiao’s concentration.
The reality is that Algieri has nothing to lose in this fight while Pacquiao has almost nothing to gain from winning it. These diametrical expectation levels are not fully reflective of reality. Thus Pacquiao must be totally self-motivated for this fight, otherwise he may underestimate his opponent with unpleasant consequences.
Technical
Algieri and Pacquiao could not be more different. As well as their physical divergence, Algieri fights out of an orthodox stance while Pacquiao is a southpaw.
Algieri allies his height and reach with a pure boxing style whereby he rarely engages in trading punches or fighting on the inside. He makes use of a nice, solid jab, though he doesn’t always lead with this punch.
Instead, he often starts combinations with a left hook, left uppercut or straight right hand. It is the latter of these three punches that could prove particularly useful against the southpaw Pacquiao, who ate several straight right hands early on in his rematch with Bradley.
There are weaknesses in the New Yorker’s style, however. Algieri often squares up with his back to the ropes, making him vulnerable to wide hooks. His defense is also leaky, with a tendency to drop his guard. This, combined with his occasionally reckless lunges into range, make him a hittable target.
Pacquiao will be looking to fire his straight left down the middle in an attempt to penetrate those open defenses of Algieri’s. He has turned into more of a boxer-puncher in recent years, refining his previously wild style and supplanting it with improved footwork and more selective punching.
There will, however, be times in this fight that Pacquiao’s old instincts, such as aggression and a consistent body attack, will be necessary if he is to counteract Algieri’s physical advantages.
Pacquiao vs. Algieri Prediction
Algieri will begin the contest on the back foot, inviting Pacquiao on to him and attempting to time the more experienced man as he makes his way inside. After a cagey opening Pacquiao will oblige, darting in and out at speed and scoring well.
Failure to win the early rounds will force more aggressive measures from Algieri, who will begin to use his jab to try and push Pacquiao back, throwing punches in greater number rather than pot-shotting the smaller man.
It will be Pacquiao who draws first blood in the fight, leading a more attack-minded Algieri on to a straight left hand, forcing his opponent to go back on the retreat. Pacquiao will pound away to the body, but most of his work upstairs will be blocked by a temporarily shell-shocked Algieri.
Having absorbed much of Pacquiao’s best work without capitulating, Algieri will grow in confidence and enjoy a resurgence in activity in the mid-late rounds. Landing his overhand right with greater frequency against a tiring Pacquiao, Algieri will be buoyed entering the final quarter of the fight.
It is in this final quarter that Pacquiao will experience danger for the first time in the fight. Now less able to evade the taller man’s punches, and too tired to launch vicious assaults as earlier, Pacquiao will take more punishment than expected in the latter stages, resulting in uncomfortably close scorecards that once again raise questions regarding his future in the sport.
Verdict: Pacquiao by Unanimous Decision
