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Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley Preview & Prediction

Credit: Chris Farina - Top Rank

Pacquiao vs. Mosley May 7th, 2011: WBO Welterweight Title Fight from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas

On May 7th, the pound for pound king, global icon and Filipino congressman, Manny Pacquiao, will get back to work when he meets future Hall of Fame fighter Shane Mosley in defense of his WBO Welterweight Title. Pacquiao vs. Mosley has been decried by some, and defended by others, but one thing that cannot be denied is that it will be a mega-event, with millions tuned in. Take a look at our comprehensive Pacquiao vs. Mosley preview and prediction below.

—> On May 7th, come back to ProBoxing-Fans.com where you can check out our live Pacquiao vs. Mosley results!

Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley: Tale of the Tape

Manny “Pac Man” Pacquiao 

52-3-2 with 38 KOs

Height: 5′ 6.5″

Reach: 67″

Stance: Southpaw

Recent results: Pacquiao hasn’t lost in over six years, and in that time has jumped from super featherweight to welterweight and beyond. His last five fights include a TKO win over Oscar De La Hoya, a vicious knockout of Ricky Hatton, a brutal beat down of Miguel Cotto, and decision wins over Joshua Clottey and Antonio Margarito.

“Sugar” Shane Mosley 

46-6-1 with 39 KOs

Height: 5′ 9″

Reach: 74″

Stance: Orthodox

Recent results: The Sugarman hasn’t been so sweet of late. It’s starting to appear that he might instead be going sour, perhaps past his due date. He is just 2-2-1 in his last 5 outings, including a close loss to Cotto, a hard to watch draw against Sergio Mora, and a one-sided loss to Floyd Mayweather. The sole standout performance was his surprising rout of Margarito in January of 2009, now over two years ago.

Pacquiao vs. Mosley Preview

Credit: Chris Farina - Top Rank

Boxing fans have begrudgingly gotten used to the idea that a dream, once-in-a-generation Pacquiao vs. Mayweather fight may never be put together. Promoter battles, drug tests, money splits and huge egos, oh my!

We’re still a demanding lot, however, and as such, the Pacquiao vs. Mosley match-up was widely lambasted when it was first announced. With the dream fight off the table though, many have taken up the rallying cry of support for this contest. But this is either sappy nostalgia or wishful thinking. While Mosley is still ranked in the middle of the top 10 in the welterweight division, he is certainly not amongst the top 5 potential opponents for Manny Pacquiao.

To be brutally honest, Shane Mosley has had exactly one performance in the last 10 years that you could hang your hat on. That was his 9th Round TKO win over Margarito in January of 2009. The rest of his recent track record includes wins over washed-up fighters (Fernando Vargas twice, Ricardo Mayorga) and mediocre contenders (Luis Collazo, Jose Luis Cruz), and losses when he has stepped up to face the best (Vernon Forrest twice, Winky Wright twice, Cotto, Mayweather).

Throw in a disputed win over Oscar De La Hoya in their second outing and the unwatchable stinker against Sergio Mora, and you should be left scratching your head at how in the world boxing fans are supposed to be excited to pay upwards of $50 for a Pacquiao vs. Mosley PPV. But here we are. Boxing fans may be a demanding lot, but we can damn sure be a gullible one, too.

Before anyone mentions how Mayweather was widely praised for fighting Mosley and putting on a dominant performance, let’s examine the very different situations of each fight at the time they were made.

Mayweather fought Mosley when he was coming off his enthralling TKO win over Margarito. The win was seen as a late-career resurgence and one of the best outings Sugar Shane ever had. Today though, that win is seen more as an aberration, a spectacular but brief rise back to the top of the boxing world, capitalizing on a mixture of underdog ferocity, the swirling pre-fight controversy of Margarito being caught with illegal hand wraps, and a plodding come-forward fighter whose jaw he could easily and repeatedly find.

Even then, all Mosley could do was put a brief scare into Mayweather in the second round of their encounter, while convincingly losing 11 of 12 rounds. By the end of the evening, an increasingly dispirited Mosley appeared ripe for the knockout, if only the ever-cautious Mayweather had opened up a bit.

Following that contest, Mosley met Mora this past September, in a fight that was declared a Draw. While I strongly believe that Mosley deserved the win, it was not the sort of showing that puts you in line to fight the best boxer on the planet. Not at 39-years-old. Not after losing 11 of 12 rounds to the second best fighter in the world. Not when there’s a string of more intriguing and worthy challengers lurking in the waters from the junior welterweight to middleweight divisions.

Clearly, the circumstances surrounding Mayweather vs. Mosley and Pacquiao vs. Mosley are quite a bit different from one another. Pacquiao vs. Mosley is a mismatch, and worse, it’s Manny’s third straight such outing, all of which have been on pay-per-view.

Pacquiao vs. Mosley Analysis

If Mosley had a bit more tread left on his tires, this fight would be much more interesting. Historically, Mosley has been bothered the most by fighters with great boxing skills and a clear size advantage over him, fighters such as Forrest and Wright. That’s not what Pacquiao brings to the table here. Instead, Mosley brings the height and reach advantage into the ring, and with those 39 KOs on his ledger, the promise of nearly always putting down the smaller man when given the opportunity.

Of course, Pacquiao is no ordinary opponent. Facing the darting southpaw, Mosley will have to do his best to weather the storm and launch back well-timed, counter right hand shots. Digging into the body early and often may enable Mosley to slowly wear Pacquiao out, or at least leave him more susceptible to big power shots upstairs. Throwing shots, and then tying up and roughhousing a bit, would help Mosley to take Pacquiao out of his offensive rhythm while avoiding damage. Throwing an overhand right off of one of those breaks might be his best chance to land the home run he needs.

This will surely be along the lines of what trainer Naazim Richardson will be preaching to his charge when Pacquiao and Mosley square off. The strategy will be for naught, however. Pacquiao is just too good, too quick and too damaging with his own blows.

Pacquiao is faster, fresher and fiercer, even though shot for shot the Sugarman still has more power than the Pacman. With that power, and the disparity in size, there’s always a chance that a magic punch lands, turning back the clock one more time for Mosley while turning out the lights on Pacquiao.

Pacquiao vs. Mosley Prediction

More likely though is that Pacquiao cruises, in similar fashion to how he whitewashed overmatched or aged opponents like De La Hoya, Hatton, Margarito and Clottey. The real question that remains is whether Mosley will suffer a prolonged beating ending in a stoppage, as De La Hoya did; be the victim of a stunning one-punch kayo, like Hatton was; or end up on the wrong side of a lopsided decision, like Margarito and Clottey.

Mosley is tough as nails, and even when miserably discouraged and lopsidedly losing, like he was against Forrest and Wright in the first encounters he had against each man, he keeps on coming. He also has a rock-solid chin, as he has hardly been down at all in his career, and he’s never been stopped.

Therefore, he’ll go the distance and throw in a few flurries of flash and excitement along the way, although the decision and outcome will never be in question. Another dominant performance for the pound for pound most pugnacious politician on the planet, Manny Pacquiao.

Prediction: Pacquiao UD Mosley 118-110