The selling point behind almost any Floyd Mayweather fight at this stage is simply “Is there any way that this is the guy that beats him?” As Mayweather’s fight against Marcos Maidana is quickly approaching, it’s as good a time as any to ponder that very issue.
Here, we’ll take a look at the top 3 questions to ask which will determine whether or not El Chino has any chance at defeating the undefeated Money Mayweather.
Just how exactly does Maidana fare against top level opposition?
Maidana entered the world stage in 2009, standing at a fearsome 25-0, 24 KOs. He then fought Andriy Kotelnik, a skilled titleholder, and lost a split decision on Kotelnik’s turf.
Since, he has fought a dozen more times. Not all of those fights were at the upper-echelon, but more often than not, he was competing against a worthy opponent. Including the Kotelnik fight, he’s 10-3, with 7 KOs, since his world debut.
Highlight wins include against a streaking Victor Ortiz, in which he broke the young fighter into admitting on national television that he wanted to quit the sport because he didn’t deserve to be beaten up like that; Jesus Soto-Karass, Josesito Lopez, a then unbeaten Victor Cayo, and the now more prominent Petr Petrov, all via stoppage.
He also defeated a past his best Erik Morales, in a closer than expected battle, and, oh yes, you may have heard about his win over Adrien Broner, which landed him the Mayweather fight to begin with.
Beyond Kotelnik, the other two losses come against Amir Khan and Devon Alexander. In the Khan fight, Maidana struggled early but rallied to hurt Khan, and then appeared to be on the brink of a kayo victory. Time cut short though, and Khan received a fair decision.
Against Alexander, he was widely outpointed, and it’s this fight which is biggest stain on his ledger heading into a match with Mayweather. If Devon Alexander can so thoroughly out-box you, what in the world will Floyd Mayweather do to you?
To Maidana’s credit, since that time he has improved his game. Working with Robert Garcia, he now utilizes a solid jab to set up his power shots, he has a greater offensive repertoire, and he has even mixed in some defense. Willie Pep he’s not, but it’s been an improvement.
At the end of the day, and despite the losses, Maidana has a very strong record against world-class opponents.
Is Maidana truly one of the most fearsome punchers in the sport?
Absolutely he is. However, his power against elite opponents is certainly worth examining more closely.
Going back to the figures we cited above, Maidana began his career with a 25 (24) – 0 record, which translates to a KO percentage of 96%. Like the vast majority of professional fighters though, as the quality of his opposition was raised, his ratio of knockouts decreased.
In the 13 fights he has had since his sterling 25-0 start, as we’ve already told you, he’s 10-3 with 7 KOs. That’s a KO percentage of just 54%, and it lowers his overall percentage to about 81.5%.
That’s nothing to mock — it’s above the likes of Wladimir Klitschko and it’s nearly even with Adonis Stevenson, as two examples. Yet, he may not be quite the killer he’s made out to be, considering that half of his last 13 opponents see the final bell, and when they do, they have at least an even chance of beating him.
Alexander, Kotelnik and yes, even Amir Khan, were able to survive to see the final bell in wins over Maidana. It was a close call for Khan, but he made it. In losses, Broner, Morales, DeMarcus Corley, and an unknown Argentinean backroom brawler lasted the distance.
We know Maidana could hurt Mayweather, but what if he doesn’t land the perfect punch?
He’s f*cked. But we we knew that already, didn’t we?
The good news for Maidana backers is that he has never been stopped. You can hurt Maidana, and you can send him to the canvas, but at this point, nobody has been able to do enough damage to close the show against him. He has way too much heart and willpower. That means he’ll always be hanging around, with one more chance to land that one monster shot.
Still, if Maidana doesn’t land a home run, he doesn’t have a chance in hell of winning the fight. Worse, considering not only his fight against Alexander, but Mayweather’s own impeccable track record, the chances of Maidana landing that home run are absolutely miniscule.
It’s never impossible, nor out of the question in the Sweet Science. This is the only sport where “puncher’s chance” actually means something, after all. But let’s say this, at the end of the day, Mayweather at -1100 and Maidana at +650 is, if anything, favorable to Maidana.
