Cotto vs. Margarito Rematch: Fight Preview
There is a lot on the line as Miguel Cotto defends his 154-pound strap against Antonio Margarito. The winner moves on to bigger things, while the loser will have a seemingly insurmountable rebuilding process. Being a rematch, there is a ton of pride at stake, both personally and ethnically. Cotto wants to avenge his first defeat and maybe show that Margarito benefited from some monkey business. Margarito, his reputation and career now in the dumps, has his final chance to salvage a boxing career that once shined and is now shrouded in negativity.
—> Check out our live Cotto Margarito round by round results on December 3rd
- Date: December 3, 2011
- Venue: Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York
- Titles: WBA 154-pound title
Vital Stats
Cotto: Will turn 31 before fight night, seemingly younger than one might think after such a long run at the top. At 5’7” with a 67-inch reach, Cotto is somewhat undersized for the 154-pound class, though it hasn’t been a factor yet. 36-2 (29 KOs) record is even better when reflecting on the quality of his opposition. His professional career is over a decade old.
Margarito: After struggling with weight over the years, the 5’11” brawler should be better in this division. With a 73-inch reach, will have a 6-inch advantage over Cotto. His 38-7 record seems rather ordinary, but 3 of those losses occurred when he was 18 or younger. Throw in ultra-close fights with Daniel Santos and Paul Williams, in addition to fighting Mosley after getting busted with loaded gloves and one could say his record is better than it looks on paper. It might surprise some to know that the 33-year old has been fighting professionally for nearly 18 years.
Age, Wear, and Recent Work
Cotto: Has done a remarkable job keeping his high-flying career afloat in face of evidence that he is slipping at age 30. The beatings he took to Margarito and Pacquiao were the types of losses that usually signal a decline, but Cotto has done well and established some distance between him and those discouraging results. Looked surprisingly sharp against Foreman and easily held off the aging Mayorga to restore some luster after a bad loss to Pacquiao.
Margarito: With such a long and taxing career already in the books, in addition to a disheartening suspension—is the 33-year old still the Margarito of old? The beatings he suffered at the hands of Mosley and Pacquiao were maybe even more severe than anything that ever happened to Cotto. To see the “old” Margarito, one has to go back over 3 years—when he beat Cotto. A decision over unheard-of Mexican Roberto Garcia is his only positive ring moment over the past several years.
Style
Cotto: Well-rounded fighter with power and skill. His fighting prowess, aggression, and explosiveness always overshadowed his more subtle skills, which he has depended on more as he gets older. Can still wreak havoc with his fists, but depends more on experience, smarts, and boxing skills as he fights on in his thirties.
Margarito: Blood-and-guts warrior with seemingly bottomless reserves of durability and grit. Was not competitive against Pacquiao, but watching him soldier through having his face literally broken into pieces illustrated that his world-class toughness is still in place. It remains to be seen if he still has the resolve to duplicate his strategy from the first fight with Cotto—when he ate everything thrown his way, before heaving himself passionately at Cotto, eventually causing the Puerto Rican great to wilt.
Questions
Cotto: Has too much been made of his supposed revival? Has he benefited from clever matchmaking, which has served to mask his erosion? Does having success against a not-ready-for primetime Yuri Foreman and a spent Ricardo Mayorga mean anything when facing a fighter like Margarito? Will the fact that he already absorbed a bad beating from Margarito play tricks on his mind? Will cuts or swelling impede him in this fight, as it did in their first encounter?
Margarito: How much did the suspension, and the losses to Mosley and Pacquiao take out of him? Did the Pacquiao loss, a particularly brutal battering, deprive him of his remaining fighting spirit? Does the present version of Margarito bear any resemblance to the never-say-die warrior who faced Cotto the first time around? Will he fall victim to some home cooking, facing a Puerto Rican fighter in NYC?
Cotto vs. Margarito II Prediction
It’s safe to say both men are not what they once were, but determining precisely how far they are from their peak is not an easy task. Cotto has taken a few beatings. But so has Margarito and his setbacks are fresher in his mind. While Margarito was dealing with the fallout from the suspension and getting tarred and feathered by Pacquiao, Cotto returned to winning form—filling his head with good thoughts. Whereas Margarito once seemed like the fresher fighter, he may have passed Cotto on the descent down the proverbial hill.
The fight really boils down to what Margarito has left. With Cotto, there are question marks also, but the profile is a bit clearer. He’s at least a reasonable facsimile of his former self. He’s slipped a bit, but at least we know he can still get it done on a pretty high level. With Margarito, we can’t be so sure. The feeling here is that the Mosley loss, the suspension, the boxing world turning against him, and the Pacquiao beating have dented his effectiveness.
Watching Margarito against Cotto and throughout his prime, it was clear that he was a fighter highly dependent on his “edge.” He was at his peak and it showed as he unflinchingly took everything Cotto dished out, before fighting back like a possessed animal. If he is still able to fight like that at 33, after an 18-year career, with the past several years spent in the dumps, it would be quite a surprise.
I think his best hope is that he finds Cotto to be a heavily-depreciated version of the man he once beat. Something can go off in Margarito’s head, as he realizes he once beat this man at his best. It could give way to a winning attitude. He did, after all, stand up to Pacman for 12 rounds. He doesn’t figure to be daunted by this task.
Cotto is a respectful guy, but it is clear he doesn’t care much for Margarito. He probably feels Margarito loaded the gloves in their first match and he resents him. At the Cotto-Mayorga post-fight press conference, promoter Bob Arum brought Margarito up to the lectern to start pushing this fight and it was clear that Cotto has a major personal problem with the man.
Look for Cotto to put everything into this effort. Whatever it was that allowed Margarito to win the first fight, whether legal or not, is gone. It just seems inconceivable that Margarito will magically recapture the form that allowed him to shine in their first fight. It will be a tough 12-rounder, with the cleaner boxing and punching of Cotto winning the day—enough to get him 7-8 rounds on the cards. Margarito will be formidable, but I’ll take Cotto in a competitive decision victory.
Prediction: Miguel Cotto wins by unanimous decision.
