Will Boxing Fans Finally See Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao in 2012?
Depending on who you ask, and when, you can get wildly divergent answers to the question of whether or not Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather will ever fight, and whether or not it will happen in the coming year.
Some might say that Mayweather is scared, another might say Pacquiao’s team is protecting him and won’t let them meet. It’s about the money, or it’s not. It’s about the drug testing, or it never was. The talk can go on for days, but ultimately, these are the key 5 points to consider for whether or not Pacquiao-Mayweather comes off in 2012.
- Jail: Mayweather has to turn himself in on January 6th to serve a 90-day jail sentence. If he has to actually serve that full sentence, or anything close to it, then Mayweather’s May 5th target for this dream fight is all but impossible. Assuming he serves the full 90 days, and gets out of jail in the first week of April, the earliest something of this magnitude could legitimately be put together would be July.
- Second Half of 2012: That still leaves half the year for something to be put together between Mayweather and Pacquiao. Of course, Pacquiao’s team isn’t likely to sit idly by. He’ll be fighting sometime in April or May most likely, which then pushes the Mayweather fight back until late summer or early fall. So realistically, we could be looking at a September date for a Pacquiao vs. Mayweather fight, and that’s if Pacquiao and Mayweather both remain unscathed until then.
- Marquez: Juan Manuel Marquez might have something to say about that. With Mayweather off the table for the first half of the year, Pacquiao vs. Marquez IV becomes a highly likely scenario, although Bob Arum might steer Pacquiao towards a rematch with Miguel Cotto, or a fight against Timothy Bradley. Marquez could certainly derail the dream fight by finally earning a decision over his rival, or he could delay it by pushing Pacquiao to the brink for another 12 hard rounds.
- Khan, Bradley, Cotto, Berto-Ortiz II, Martinez & More: These names represent the remaining cast of characters in this charade. They are potential other opponents for either Mayweather or Pacquiao. With Amir Khan losing to Lamont Peterson, his big fight wishes have to be iced. It’s unlikely Sergio Martinez finally lures either man into the ring. If Victor Ortiz defeats Andre Berto for a second time, neither man is an appealing choice. Bradley is a worthwhile candidate, but doesn’t make for a big event, while Miguel Cotto is much more appealing as an opponent for Mayweather than for Pacquiao. In other words… there are not very many other strong options out there. Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao need one another, and need one another soon.
- Tick-Tock: The clock is officially ticking here folks. Of course, it’s been ticking for the last two years. It’s ticking until Mayweather or Pacquiao retires from the sport for good. It’s ticking until one or both of them are removed from their primes, and the value of the fight diminishes. It’s ticking until one of them loses a fight before they get to square off. Tick-tock…
Considering all of the above, I believe there’s about a 66% chance – two/thirds – of seeing Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao fight in 2012. Of course, you should take that with a grain of salt, as I never in my dreams would have believed the fight would have been scuttled for so long already.
