April 14 Pay-Per-View Previews and Predictions: Rios-Abril, Marguez-Fedchenko, and Alvarado-Herrera
On Saturday, a dual-site PPV offers an interesting spread of fights involving some of the best in the business. In Las Vegas, Brandon Rios takes on Richard Abril, with an interesting lead-up in Mike Alvarado taking on Mauricio Herrera. And from Mexico City, their favorite son returns home as Juan Manuel Marquez takes on Ukrainian visitor Sergey Fedchenko. While not the most compelling fights on paper, the favorites are vulnerable enough to make these bouts fairly interesting. Let’s take a look at what Saturday night’s PPV has to offer:
Brandon Rios vs. Richard Abril
Rios will attempt to regain the title he lost on the scales 5 months ago when he faces Richard Abril, who won the interim belt with a win over ex-champ Miguel Acosta. Strangely, he won the interim strap before Rios even lost the title due to not making weight, but I’ve long since stopped trying to make sense of the sanctioning body machinations that continue to cloud the world championship picture.
I’m not quite sure why Rios, 29-0-1 (22 KOs) is still trying to make 135. And if so, why against a fighter with as little acclaim as Abril? At the same time, Abril, 17-2-1 (8 KOs) just might be talented to take advantage of depleted Rios. Will Rios even make weight? It’s a bit of a puzzling set of conditions–a fight where you would prefer to see the weigh-in before placing a bet. Abril, a well-schooled Cuban, has a height advantage over Rios and has won 5 straight since losing to Hank Lundy in January 2010.
Like all of Rios’ opponents, Abril will need to somehow weather an evening full of in-your-face pressure. Abril, 29, has lost twice–both by split decision–to Lundy and Breidis Prescott. But I believe he has improved and could have easily won either or both of the fights he lost. He’s just good enough to be a legitimate danger to Rios. But if Rios is compromised by trying to make weight, Abril can certainly take advantage and will probably be little harder on Rios than John Murray was in Rios’ previous outing.
Let’s face it, though, Brandon Rios is the truth. I just have a hard time at the end of the day believing that when he does hit a wall–that it’s going to be against guys like Richard Abril. The “interim champ” is a fine fighter, but when watching him I don’t get the feeling that he can stand up to Rios for 12 rounds. This is a whole different ballgame than anything Abril has been seeing in the ring and Rios should enter the ring on Saturday ready to fight. Why would he jeopardize big-money fights by arriving to the ring a shadow of himself? You’re almost forced to take the leap-of-faith that Team Rios is smarter than that.
Prediction: Brandon Rios wins by 9th-round TKO.
Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Sergey Fedchenko
Marquez, 38, will try to win the interim WBO junior welterweight title (ugh) when he takes on Sergey Fedchenko in his hometown of Mexico City as part of the dual-site PPV on Saturday. On one hand the conditions seem ripe for an upset. It has to be hard for Marquez after the Pacquiao fight to focus on these type of bouts. The exhaustive build-up and the disappointment of not getting the win in another close fight had to take something out of him. You build up to something and your career is about to crescendo, but then you come up short and have to spin out of it and get it together for a lesser fight. That can be hard.
A few things could buoy Marquez, 53-6-1 (39 KOs) for this fight where he might otherwise be struggling to find motivation. He is fighting in front of his hometown fans for the first time in 18 years. Add into the mix that he’s on a short leash and he just might be able to stoke those fires for this fight. Another loss would make it difficult for him to really justify continuing. It would definitely take him out of consideration for a 4th Pacquiao fight so just maybe he will be feeling the urgency.
Another factor suggesting that this might not be the night to pick against Marquez is his opponent. Fedchenko is a fine fighter, as his 30-1 (13 KOs) record suggests. He is also rather squat for the weight and will not have the size advantage that other 140-pounders might have against the legendary Mexican. And while wins over DeMarcus Corley and Willy Blain are nice, he fell short the only time he dipped his toe into world-class waters when he dropped a decision in his native Ukraine to Kaizer Mabuza.
Fedchenko, 31, is a nifty and alert boxer, but after launching his punches, he tends to square up a bit. His body becomes especially open, a recipe for disaster against a sharpshooter like Marquez. The old champion simply has more firepower, know-how, and established durability than Fedchenko. The Ukrainian will be game. He didn’t come this far to cave in with little provocation, but when he starts getting nailed, the difference in class will be readily apparent. If Marquez were fighting another Ukrainian in Andrey Kotelnik, you could maybe justify an upset pick. But Fedchenko is no Kotelnik. I think Fedchenko will have seen enough by the 6th round.
Prediction: Juan Manuel Marquez wins by 6th-round knockout.
Mike Alvarado vs. Mauricio Herrera
Mike Alvarado, 32-0 (23), takes on Mauricio Herrera, 18-1 (7 KOs) on the Rios-Abril undercard on Saturday night at the Mandalay Bay. This is nice matchup of junior welterweight contenders, with the unbeaten Alvarado, 31, attempting to continue his ascent to relevance in a competitive 140-pound division. Alvarado is coming off a dramatic last-round TKO over Breidis Prescott. Behind by 4 points on two cards, he pulled a rabbit out of his hat in an impassioned display. However, he doesn’t want to make a habit of relying on late knockouts, which can be quite difficult to come by.
Herrera, also 31, is a certainly a live underdog–a resourceful and gritty performer who has rightfully garnered some attention recently. He outboxed unbeaten Ruslan Provodnikov in 2011 and then notched a nice win over Mike Dallas, Jr. in his last fight 10 months ago–even if he appeared slightly fortunate to get the verdict. He is a steely guy, a late-bloomer who can be a real handful. He knows what he’s doing in the ring and has that look of an old-school, well-rounded contender. It’s hard not to like fighters like Herrera.
I’m just not so sure Herrera can do what Prescott did to Alvarado in November of 2011. He doesn’t have the length or the power to bust up Alvarado’s face like Prescott had. He will have to adopt a more scientific and technical approach. To a large degree, he has the skills to trouble Alvarado, who despite being 32-0, is not an invulnerable fighting force. It’s just that Alvarado is such a robust package at 140 that I’m not sure Herrera has the firepower to deal with it for 12 rounds. I think Alvarado wins a comfortable unanimous decision against a game and capable Herrera.
Prediction: Mike Alvarado wins a unanimous decision.
