More fuel is thrown onto the fire of the 140 lbs division on August 27th in San Jose, CA when Marcos Maidana and Robert Guerrero clash live on HBO. One is an established light welterweight with a reputation for crowd-pleasing ferocity and power, while the other is a rising lightweight known as “The Ghost” for his elusive, southpaw ways. The winner could be the mandatory challenger for Amir Khan next year, or go on to an even more lucrative clash with a different top tier fighter.
Technically, this fight is for the real version of the WBA 140 lbs title, except it’s not. There is no “interim” in the phrasing only because Amir Khan will soon be fighting IBF champ Zab Judah, and under the WBA’s ridiculous rules, a unified champion is a “super champion.” Technically, the winner of this fight gets a black belt and becomes a WBA champion. In reality, however, the championship is a fraud and this is a match to establish the WBA’s #1 contender.
Marcos Maidana (30-2, 27 KOs)
5’9″ tall, 70″ reach, 27 years old
Argentine
Marcos Maidana is one of the toughest customers in the Light Welterweight Division, ranked #3 by Proboxing-fans and unquestionably the hardest puncher in the division. However, he is also a well-defined quantity by now. Maidana has the sheer power and toughness to give and take with the best of them. However, he is also a pure puncher and always stumbles when faced with a world class boxer. Andriy Kotelnyk was tough enough and technically sound enough to outbox him by a hair back in 2009, while Amir Khan’s speed and skill proved too much for him in 2010. More pointedly, Maidana didn’t look great against DeMarcus Corely, and “Chop Chop’s” strong suit was always boxing. Erik Morales stunned his critics and well-wishers (I count myself among the latter group) who gave him scant chance against “El Chino” earlier this year, and he gave Maidana a tough time on the strength of his oft-underrated boxing skills.
Another important thing to realize about Maidana at this stage of his career is that he has never seized the brass ring. Maidana has reigned as the WBA’s “Interim Champion” before, and is indeed the Interim Champion now. However, that is really just a way of saying he is the #1 contender with the option of becoming the champ for free if the real champ doesn’t defend his title. The whole idea of interim championships has always been an ugly one, and in a world with four major world titles, it says something that Maidana has never reigned as a real titleholder. In both his previous stabs at a real title — Kotelnyk and Khan — he came up short. Technically, this fight is his third try.
Robert Guerrero (29-1-1, 18 KOs)
5’8″ tall, 70″ reach, southpaw, 28 years old
American
Former Featherweight Champion, Former Super Featherweight Champion
If Marcos Maidana is well-known as a wrecking ball, Guerrero is just as famous as one of the sport’s class acts. This is the man who, after winning the IBF’s 130 lbs title promptly vacated it to spend more time with his wife, who was stricken with leukemia. While he has enjoyed a distinguished reign as a featherweight champion, it must be said Guerrero has only two “names” on his resume: a much-faded Joel Casamayor and the Australian brawler Michael Katsidis. Beating Katsidis was a major victory, however, and confirmed that Guerrero’s guile and technical ability stood him in good stead as a lightweight contender.
When Guerrero fought Katsidis, it was for the interim 135 lbs championships of the WBO and WBA. Just as I cannot count Maidana’s interim belt as the real deal, it should be noted that Guerrero has never held a real lightweight championship either.
Guerrero vs. Maidana Preview
Even though the title at stake is a joke at best and a disgrace at worst, both men have a lot at stake in this fight. Maidana is coming off his loss to Khan and his questionable, narrow win over Morales. If he can beat Guerrero, he proves that he can deal with slicksters and technicians, and his stock goes up. It might be enough to get him a fight with Timothy Bradley or a rematch with Amir Khan. For Guerrero, a win signals his entry into the ranks of 140 lbs contenders and continues the momentum he started by beating Katsidis. With a win, Guerrero could return to lightweight or continue in the red-hot super lightweight ranks as a top-ranked contender and angle for a big payday. Both men will show up motivated, fit, and looking for a win.
Fight Analysis
This is a classic boxer vs. puncher match-up, and that would bode ill for Maidana were it not for a number of mitigating factors stemming from one simple question: Guerrero is a world class boxer, but does that hold up at 140 lbs? Khan is fast, hard-hitting and skilled, while Kotelnyk was technically solid and very tough. Both were real 140 pounders, like Maidana.
Robert Guerrero, however, might not be a real 140 pounder. When Maidana started his career in June 2004, he weighed in at 140 lbs and Guerrero weighed in at 126 lbs. They are virtually the same height and have the same reach, but Maidana is a much bigger man. Guerrero wasn’t much of a puncher at lower weights, and he has never fought a one-punch knockout king before either. While his chin has never really been dented, it has never really been tested either, and in Maidana he is facing the biggest puncher of his career, in both a figurative and literal sense.
Beating a guy like Maidana is easy if you can do at least two of the following things: hit hard enough to blunt his aggressiveness, move fast enough to elude his artillery, be tough enough take his punch and/or have the defense to deflect his power. You must have at least two of those things or you lose; just ask Victor Ortiz. Guerrero has the defensive skill, but definitely not the power. He might be tough enough and he might be fast enough, but we don’t really know at this stage.
I think Guerrero is fast enough to have a solid chance of winning. He doesn’t have the hand speed to consistently beat Maidana to the punch, but he does have the skill and speed to parry and slip “El Chino.” He won’t befuddle the Argentine bull, but if Guerrero sticks to a disciplined game plan, he will be able to stay out of trouble and score.
The problem there is that Maidana will be the aggressor through the fight, and the few punches he lands will look good. He may even put Guerrero on the canvas once or twice. By that measure, it will be a close fight of the type that who won depends on what you like: aggression or boxing skill. The judges have often ruled in favor of aggression in recent years, but Guerrero is a Golden Boy fighter and this bout is taking place in Guerrero’s backyard of San Jose, CA. That will be enough to tilt the nod to the “more boring” boxer.
Maidana vs. Guerrero Prediction
Robert Guerrero SD12.
