Canelo vs. Gomez On the Star Power PPV:
Budding young superstar Saul Alvarez takes another step toward the boxing big-time, facing fringe welterweight contender Alfonso Gomez on September 17. Alvarez, just 21, has a lot of hopes tied up into him and looks to add another win to a growing resume that now reads an impressive 37-0-1.
Casual boxing fans know Gomez, arguably the biggest star of the second season of Contender. In picking Gomez, Alvarez will be facing a name opponent, though one very few people think will win. In all candor, this is essentially a stay-busy fight for Alvarez—a chance for him to stay sharp while continuing to build his growing Southern-California fan base. But stranger things have happened. Gomez, on a 5-fight winning streak, realizes his chances to break through are running out quickly.
When one man’s motivation is to simply remain active, while his opponent is fighting for his future, surprises can happen. Will Gomez merely be another step in Alvarez’ ascent to superstardom or can he spring a monumental upset?
- Date: September 17, 2011
- Site: Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
- Title: WBC Light Middleweight Title
- Buy Alvarez vs. Gomez tickets online here
Age and Physical Equipment
Alvarez: Just turned 21—amazing since it seems he’s been around for at least a few years. Has good size for a 154-pounder—standing about 5’10” with a 71-inch reach. His pro career is almost 6 years old. Is a very formidable physical fighting presence.
Gomez: The 30-year old Gomez has been fighting professionally for over a decade. Even though he fought on the Contender at middleweight poundage, he has spent the bulk of his career at welterweight. Though listed with similar physical dimensions as Alvarez, appears a little smaller than his opponent.
Style
Alvarez: Has all the punches in the book. An aggressive fighter, but also a thoughtful one who doesn’t attack recklessly. Walks his opponents down and probes with his jab, before unleashing the power shots, which could come in the form of straight rights, hooks, and uppercuts. Very accurate puncher. Defense and chin seems adequate, but having not faced a terribly gifted offensive threat, those remain somewhat untested areas of his game.
Gomez: Not as authoritative a puncher as Alvarez by any means, but a gritty, fast-handed battler in his own right. Wields a useful left hook and is able to whack with it to the body. When not overwhelmed by the offense of his opponent, can be quite shifty and clever, using feints, upper-body movement, and fast reflexes to control the action. Very active in the ring.
Resume and Recent Work
Alvarez: Not too many kids who have only been legally allowed to play blackjack for a month or so can compare to what Alvarez has accomplished. Beat current IBF Lightweight Champion Miguel Vazquez in his 3rd fight, repeating the win a few years later. His development was enhanced with wins over decent opposition like Gabriel Martinez, Larry Mosley, Raul Pinzon, Michel Rosales, Lanardo Tyner, and Jose Miguel Cotto. His last four fights have allowed him to graduate from the position of prospect into a legitimate world-class fighter, beating Carlos Baldomir, Lovemore N’dou, Matthew Hatton, and Ryan Rhodes. Win over Hatton earned him the vacant WBC 154-pound crown.
Gomez: Didn’t come up the easy way. In 2001, lost a 4-rounder to Ishe Smith, when a point deduction cost him a draw. Split a pair of early-career bouts over tough Jesse Feliciano. Carried a 10-2-1 record into the Contender, facing men 2 divisions higher and did very well. Opened with a decision over Peter Manfredo, and beat Ahmad Kaddour, before losing the return to Manfredo. Beat Jesse Brinkley in a controversial match. In his post-Contender career, he drew with old nemesis Feliciano, before beating talented Carson Jones. Finished off the career of Arturo Gatti with a brutal 7th-round TKO, setting up a 2008 match with Miguel Cotto, which saw Gomez dominated en route to 5th-round stoppage defeat. Undefeated since then, scoring 5 straight wins, including a good victory over welterweight contender Jesus Soto-Karass.
Questions and Concerns
Alvarez: Is he benefiting from clever matchmaking? Rhodes was highly regarded, but Hatton and Gomez were wholly undeserving challengers at 154 pounds, having fought mostly at 147. Is there a shortage of ranking 154-pounders for Alvarez to fight? Will these type of fights actually impair his development? Did the win over Rhodes give him false prestige, considering how bad the Englishman looked?
Gomez: If he were meant to be a top fighter, wouldn’t it have happened already? Is he really just a good journeyman who has benefited from appearing on a memorable season of the Contender and beating up on older and spent name fighters? Will his aggressive style be right up Alvarez’ alley, especially since Gomez doesn’t pack a lot of power? Has he gotten better since losing so lopsidedly to Cotto? Would Soto-Karass have won their fight if he was not cut right when he was starting to get into the fight?
Canelo Alvarez vs. Gomez Prediction
Some of the criticism levied at Alvarez is justified. He seems to have almost “Chavez Juniored” his way into a green title belt, with an apparently sympathetic WBC allowing him to consolidate his world title claim by spurious means. People scoffed when Pacquiao and Margarito fought for this very belt, considering their lack of credentials at this weight. But that was small potatoes compared to the WBC allowing Alvarez-Hatton to fight for the belt when it became clear Pacquiao would not be fighting at 154 in the near future. Hatton, game and plucky as they come, was really no more than a top-25 welterweight. What business did he have fighting for a title at 154?
You could say the same thing about Gomez, but dwelling on sanctioning body machinations really only distracts us from what is really pertinent here: Alvarez is one helluva fighter and at 21, his prospects for future superstardom are not that unrealistic.
When the kid lets his hands go with fury, he creates a lot of menace. If you didn’t know any better, you’d think it was a light heavyweight landing those shots. His punches have clout and his ability to create havoc with his hands is indeed very real. In Gomez, he will find an opponent who will give him ample chances to showcase his offense.
Gomez’ speed and pluck might actually give Alvarez more problems than he had against the more highly-regarded Ryan Rhodes in his previous fight. But Gomez, despite being a high-quality campaigner, is neither championship-level nor a 154-pounder. Look for him to begin appearing out of his element in the second-third of the fight, where heavy clouts to the head and body will begin to tell.
With Alvarez really zeroing in around the 8th round, Gomez’ cause will begin to look hopeless. He’ll hang in there the best he can. This is likely his last chance at the bigtime. If he wins, he’s fighting on HBO for the big bucks. If he comes up short, it’s back to fighting on smaller cards for short pay, hoping another big fight comes around that he probably can’t win.
I just can’t see him going past the 10th round. Look for Alvarez to score a late-rounds TKO.
Prediction: Saul Alvarez wins by 10th-round TKO.
