Fight Preview: Canelo vs. Josesito
On September 15 in Las Vegas, Saul Alvarez defends his WBC belt against upset-minded Josesito Lopez. The 22-year old Alvarez is a growing star in the sport, undefeated in 41 fights and a world champion. Lopez earned this shot after beating Alvarez’ supposed next opponent–Victor Ortiz.
There has been some scuttlebutt about the legitimacy of this fight, with the 154-pound Alvarez fighting what really amounts to a junior welterweight. Lopez needed to rise in weight to get the Ortiz fight, only weighing 144 lbs for that fight. Now he has to jump up another weight class to fight a big junior middleweight who routinely weighs in the 170s by fight-night.
- Date: September 15, 2012
- Site: MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada
- Titles: WBC 154-Pound Championship
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, 40-0-1 (29 KOs), Jalisco, Mexico
vs.
Josesito Lopez, 30-4 (18 KOs), Riverside, California
I’m just not so sure Alvarez should catch too much flack over this. They tried to make a bunch of different fights with worthwhile opposition. None of it worked out–Paul Williams had a terrible accident, James Kirkland out-priced himself, and Ortiz lost to Lopez as a huge favorite. So Lopez gets the shot. Is it the perfect fight? No. But this still figures to be an exciting shoot-out.
Lopez is a young, hungry, and dogged up-and-coming fighter. The fact that he is outsized is a major cause of concern, but looking at Canelo’s recent opposition, maybe Lopez has a little something that was missing with Canelo’s recent foes. Not to take shots at Canelo’s resume, but he’s taken the route a lot of rising fighters take–beating guys whose name value outweighs their merit as a fighter–downhill-headed fighters like Shane Mosley, Kermit Cintron, Carlos Baldomir, etc.
In choosing Lopez as an opponent, Canelo is fighting a guy with youth on his side, a fighter whose strengths and weaknesses have not yet been exposed to its full extent. Therefore, it’s fair to say that Lopez is a little more of an X-factor than any of Canelo’s recent opposition. Watching Lopez slay Ortiz, it’s clear he is a fighter with that little extra something. He’s got a little Rocky Balboa in him.
I was ringside when Lopez defeated Mike Dallas, Jr., a fast and dynamic 140-pounder. Lopez romped to a 7th-round TKO over the unbeaten Dallas, Jr. I didn’t see his next fight, when he lost a decision to prospect Jessie Vargas, but word is that the decision easily could have gone to Lopez, who lost a split nod. That result became a non-factor after Lopez upset Ortiz in his next fight.
Again, the size issue is impossible to ignore. Lopez, 28, used to fight as a 130-pounder. In the press conferences, the wiry Riverside-based contender looked to have a slight height advantage over Alvarez. So the weight difference might not be so jarring from a naked-eye point of view. But consider that Lopez was able to make 147 with several pounds to spare against Ortiz. Now he will add artificial weight to come in somewhere near 154.
Meanwhile, Canelo will sweat down to 154 and come into the ring at light heavyweight poundage.You see a fight listed as a 154-pound contest, but the fact of the matter is that Canelo might have a good 20 pounds on his opponent by the time the opening bell sounds.
Lopez might have a speed advantage, but he will be dancing along the razor’s edge at all times against Canelo. Not that Canelo’s punching power is so scary, but he’s a solid-hitting fighter whose punches make a resounding impact. Lopez hasn’t come close to fighting anyone with that kind of firepower.
Walking through some of Ortiz punches showed Lopez’ chin is no joke. But unlike Ortiz, Canelo is the consummate professional. He will be bringing it all night and Lopez can’t count on some of the things he benefited from when fighting Ortiz, who has a tendency to melt down during stressful moments in fights.
I really like Lopez. He has done the Inland Empire proud and he has a bright future ahead of him. He had a certain “damn the torpedoes” outlook that everyone found very refreshing in the Ortiz fight. But alas, his immediate future lies between 140-147. Asking him beat one of the best 154-pounders is a tall order that I think is a little outside of his reach. But I was wrong before about Lopez. I picked Ortiz to beat him and for some of the same reasons I’m picking Alvarez now. Maybe I’m missing the boat with Lopez.
Canelo vs. Lopez Prediction
Canelo needs to be prepared to do serious battle in this fight. If bad thoughts start creeping into his mind, he will surely make this harder on himself that it should be. Canelo better not pull an Apollo Creed, worrying about how many roses he will carry into the ring while his trainer is watching Rocky beat up on hanging beef. They went through several different opponents and surely Alvarez knows that Lopez’ previous highest weight was a full 10 pounds under the junior middleweight limit. That could play tricks on his mind.
When facing an opponent as hungry and ambitious as Lopez, you need to be fully on-point. If Canelo overlooks Lopez, he could suffer the same fate as Ortiz. Size advantage or not, Canelo is going to have to work hard to dissuade the passionate Lopez.
I see the length and speed of Lopez giving Canelo some problems. After 4 rounds, Lopez will hold a slight lead. But the offense of Canelo will just be a little too robust and when he starts dialing it in, Lopez will be struggling to find answers. In the last third of the fight, I suspect a waning Lopez will make a stand. He isn’t the type of guy who will just try to go the distance. He will be in there to win. At that point, Canelo will shut him down. Despite a gutsy effort by Lopez, I think he comes up a bit short.
Prediction: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez wins by 10th-round TKO.
