Fight Pick & Preview – Cotto vs. Martinez:
On June 7, World Middleweight Champion Sergio Martinez defends his title against Miguel Cotto in Madison Square Garden in one of the bigger bouts of the year. Cotto is gunning for something huge in winning the real middleweight title against a fighter who has shown some signs of wear in recent outings.
Out for 14 months, Martinez backers are hoping to see a refreshed version of the fighter they saw struggle against Martin Murray and who almost lost the belt to Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. before that. Cotto’s last image in the ring, meanwhile, is a blast-out of capable vet Delvin Rodriguez in his first fight under new trainer Freddie Roach.
- Date: June 7, 2014
- Site: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
- Titles: World Middleweight Championship: 12 Rounds
Sergio Martinez, 51-2-2 (28 KOs), Buenos Aires, Argentina
vs.
Miguel Cotto, 38-4 (31 KOs), Caguas, Puerto Rico
Cotto vs. Martinez Fight Analysis & Background
I think people have been hard on Martinez. Sure, recent problems in the ring with inactivity have allowed Gennady Golovkin to surpass him in many people’s minds as the the best 160-pounder in the world. But until Martinez is beaten, he is the real middleweight champion. At 39, he is getting up there and maybe his body began to betray him a bit in recent outings. This rest may be just what the doctor ordered.
Cotto did look reborn to a certain degree, as he went back to his aggressive hooking style against Rodriguez to startling affect. Then again, that was Delvin Rodriguez. It’s probable that Martinez would have looked great if he had been fighting Rodriguez, as opposed to the best middleweights in the world. At the same time, it’s difficult to determine where both men stand exactly in relation to the “big picture.”
To say Martinez is on the slide and Cotto is revitalized may be an oversimplification. Martinez may be the bigger question mark. What version of Sergio materializes here? The possible range is somewhat vast.
Cotto is catching Martinez at the right time. A few years ago, this challenge would have seemed all but hopeless. Now, a lot of respected boxing observers are giving Cotto a good chance. The Puerto Rican standout is certainly past his prime, but unlike some fighters who nosedive, Cotto has kept it together remarkably well and is still a reasonable facsimile of the fighter of old.
With Martinez, it’s hard to tell. Is it a case of him growing momentarily stale or is he really finished? Against Martin Murray, he looked to have lost a lot of his mojo. Murray’s career-best performance may have had a lot to do with that. Maybe Martinez was thrown by fighting in a rainy soccer stadium in Argentina, his first fight in his homeland in over a decade.
Martinez has a recent air of fragility. Physically, he’s not as rugged as Cotto and as a result, maybe hasn’t reacted to ring-punishment as favorably as Cotto. But if Cotto, his team, and his supporters are banking on a depreciated Martinez, that might be the wrong tact.
Cotto becoming the real middleweight champion in 2014 just doesn’t sound right on a visceral level. But there is hope. Martinez, though bigger, is not a big middleweight. If not for him winning the title at this weight, he might still be at 154. Cotto still faces some issues in this fight, namely with the speed and southpaw style of the champion.
At his best, Martinez is a spectacular fighter, one who is blessed with great athleticism, powers of anticipation, and a sharp fighting mind. While this may be an over-generalization, Martinez will play matador to Cotto’s bull. But this matador will be doing more that simply side-stepping. Martinez’ slashing two-fisted attack can be a lot to handle. Cotto, a wonderful fighter, is not all that fast, especially in 2014 and at 160 pounds. Those who like this style matchup for Martinez have some things upon which to hang their hats.
Watching Martin Murray tagging Martinez with such regularity makes it seem very possible that Cotto can do one better. But Murray was able to give Martinez a good go based on some assets that are missing from the Cotto arsenal, namely length and speed. Even so, Cotto is better than Murray and a lot of people thought Murray won, so you have to give Cotto a shot here. A good one.
Martinez vs. Cotto Prediction
Cotto can pull this off. It will take a vintage performance against a top fighter. And Cotto will need to see Martinez looking like he did in his last fight and not the version who was smacking up the best at 154-160 pounds from 2008-2012. Martinez being a lefty is not great for Cotto, being that Miguel’s best punch is a left hook, which will be going up against Martinez’ lead hand. Martinez’ best shot, meanwhile, is a sharp straight left, which sets up better against righties.
Some other issues here could be Cotto’s tendency to swell and cut, especially against the crisp fists of the champion. And there is the speed issue. If Cotto is unable to bridge the speed gap with superior timing and positioning, the contrast will appear vividly and Cotto may be reduced to having to find one big shot. And it’s not like that can’t work. At the end of the day, whatever Chavez, Jr. and Murray can do, Cotto may be able to do one better.
No one can really write off Cotto here with any degree of assuredness. I just think it’s going to be a tough stylistic matchup for him. If Martinez is on his way out, Cotto will show him the door. And if he can stay close to Martinez, he could get a break from the judges fighting at MSG, where he gets massive support from NYC’s robust Puerto Rican fan base.
But I see Martinez using his speed, movement, and stinging straight left to keep Cotto sufficiently at bay for a big part of the fight. Martinez wins a semi-comfortable, but competitive unanimous decision.
Prediction: Sergio Martinez by unanimous decision.
