Miguel Cotto vs. Sergio Martinez Predictions & Analysis
On June 7th at Madison Square Garden, Miguel Cotto challenges Sergio Martinez for the middleweight championship of the world. Right here, the ProBoxing-Fans.com team is back with another edition of our big-fight staff picks. Who wins the fight, and how? Take a look at our Cotto vs. Martinez predictions to see how we believe the fight will go down.
Jake Emen: Cotto vs. Martinez hinges entirely on the health of Sergio Martinez, and his ailing knees and various assorted injuries. I’d say that if Maravilla is still 80% as Marvelous as he was about two years ago, he wins this fight going away, taking a close fight through the first six rounds and turning it into a clear, wide decision victory by the end of the 12th. Now, if Martinez isn’t healthy that’s an entirely different story, but I’ll bet on that 80% figure being enough to get the job done.
Prediction: Martinez via UD
Scott Levinson: Cotto may be getting Martinez at the right time, with the middleweight champion coming off a layoff and looking increasingly vulnerable before the hiatus. Cotto, now under the stewardship of Freddie Roach, looked enlivened in a smashing of normally-reliable vet Delvin Rodriguez. At the same time, Martinez may have also looked great if fighting guys like Rodriguez. In addition, the layoff may have recharged Martinez for the stretch-run of his career. Cotto is competent, classy, and hard-hitting enough to remain competitive, but the superior speed of Martinez will keep him a step ahead and allow to him to buck the advantage Cotto will have with this being at MSG. Martinez by close, but unanimous decision.
Prediction: Martinez via UD
Rich Thomas: Martinez might be a small middleweight/career light middleweight, but he has been fighting at 160 for years now, so he is used to taking big shots from bigger guys. He is also faster and more mobile than Cotto, but Cotto’s body punching skills ought to negate that footwork advantage to a certain extent. Even so, I don’t see Cotto coming out on top here, not unless Martinez suddenly gets old.
Prediction:Martinez via UD
Blair Newman: Cotto tends not to like fast-handed southpaws – DeMarcus Corley, Zab Judah, Manny Pacquiao and Austin Trout all gave him varying degrees of difficulty, and none were as big or punch as hard as the middleweight ‘Maravilla’.
Cotto will want to test exactly how fresh Martinez is following his recent injuries, so I see him starting fast and targeting Martinez’s aging body to try and slow him down as the fight wears on. Martinez has always had balance issues, so I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a rejuvenated Cotto sending him to the canvas with a flash knockdown too, but Martinez will gradually chip away at an oncoming Cotto, thrusting straight lefts and uppercuts through his guard.
The damage will accrue and it will be Cotto who looks the older man by the ninth, leading to two possible endings. He goes out on his shield and is stopped in action, or is pulled out by the corner. Either way, I predict a Martinez stoppage win within about ten rounds.
Prediction: Martinez TKO10
Matt Andrzejewski: Cotto has trouble with fighters that are quick and can use the entire ring. As seen in the Trout fight, Cotto struggles to cut off the ring against such fighters and can be easily out boxed. Martinez is quick and is a master of using the ring to out box opponents. The only question to me is the health of Martinez’s knee. I think the time off has helped with that recovery and Martinez will enter the ring with the knee being in much better shape than it was for the Murray fight. As such, I think Martinez will have his way with Cotto and dominate the fight until the referee stops the contest late.
Prediction: Martinez TKO11
Steve Shumansky: Miguel Cotto is moving up in weight to face a fighter in Middleweight champion Sergio Martinez who is bigger, far more athletic, and possesses better boxing ability. But, Cotto will have a chance to make history as the first Puerto Rican fighter to hold belts in four separate weight classes. It also won’t hurt that he will be fighting in front of a rabid pro-Cotto Madison Square Garden crowd. The major unknown with Martinez is that he has suffered through knee and hand injuries over his last two fights with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and Martin Murray. While he dominated Chavez Jr. for most of the fight, despite being dropped and almost stopped in the final round, he was also decked by Murray who no one would compare to Cotto. Cotto is a devastating body puncher and if Martinez is at all off his game because of age or prior injury, this could be a long night for him. I think Martinez boxes well and keeps Cotto at long range for the first half of the fight, but when the tank starts to empty, Cotto will take charge and stop Sergio on a late round TKO. In life, as in boxing, timing is everything and I think Cotto gets Martinez at the only time in his career when he could beat him.
Prediction: Cotto via late round TKO
Evan Smith: This one should easily be a crowd pleaser. Of course there is concern with Martinez and his previous injuries, but I believe he is healthy and ready to go. This one should be a close and competitive bout, but if I were a betting man — I’m taking Martinez. I see the first couple rounds being back and forth feel-out rounds, with the momentum shifting in favor of Martinez in the middle rounds. Martinez’s awkward southpaw style and fast hand speed will give Cotto a lot of trouble. Cotto will try to bully Martinez into the ropes and land some big body shots, but the Argentinean will seemingly find his way back to the center of the ring to dictate the pace of the fight. Look for the 39-year-old to unleash his jab and work various angles to keep Cotto flustered. I believe Cotto will find some success in one or two of the later rounds, but he will ultimately fall short in the bout, losing on the scorecards by a unanimous decision.
Prediction: Martinez via UD (116-112, 116-112, 117-111)
Jake Collins: We’ve been spoiled with some huge fights recently and this is certainly another. Not many people have been in as many fights against top competition as ‘Maravilla’, but Cotto is one of a handful of boxers who can lay claim to that. In his last couple of fights, Martinez’s age has started to show ever so slightly (further highlighted by his injuries), but that being said I think he will see off Cotto. Cotto has struggled to topple the top fighter of a weight division in the past and I see that happening again here. These are both tough guys with an abundance of skill, so I expect blood, knock downs and a 12 rounder that has all the ingredients for a fight of the year contender.
Prediction: Martinez via UD
Martinez vs. Cotto Predictions – Final Tally
- Sergio Martinez: 7 (5 by decision, 2 by stoppage)
- Miguel Cotto: 1 (by stoppage)
