Two top-ranked middleweights, Danny Geale and Sebastian Sylvester, will clash on May 7th in Germany in a fight that will shake up the division’s rankings. If IBF Champion Sebastian Sylvester can win this fight, it will go a long way to silencing his critics and probably establish him as a Top 5 middleweight. If Danny Geale wins, on the other hand, he will capture the IBF championship and make himself a vibrant, exciting new face in the 160-pound ranks.
Daniel Geale (24-1, 15 KOs)
5’10” with 71″ reach, 30 years old
Australian
Daniel Geale is a well-schooled boxer puncher, with an amateur pedigree that includes a trip to the 2000 Olympics and a 2002 Gold Medal at the Commonwealth Games. Even so, his career has been somewhat lackluster to date. In 2009, he dropped a split decision to fellow Australian Anthony Mundine. Although Mundine is undeniably one tough bastard, he has never had much in the skills department and has enjoyed a carefully stage-managed career.
Given his lack of experience, Geale did well in a fight that saw Australian observers rank him as a 3-1 underdog. Still, the fact remains that Mundine was a gatekeeper and Geale did not get past him.
Against that, it must be said that Geale really did a number on the Russian fringe contender Roman Karmazin. Geale was more or less in control for the length of the fight, and in the final stanza upped the ante and pushed Karmazin over the edge. It was a masterful performance and it earned him the right to challenge for the IBF Title.
Sebastian Sylvester (34-3-1, 16 KOs)
5’7 1/2″, 30 years old
German
IBF Middleweight Champion
Sylvester is an able enough technician, but not really world class material and lucky to call himself “champion.” He was lucky to land that big punch in the 12th to knockout 40-year old Spaniard Javier Castillejo prior to challenging Felix Sturm. In challenging his countryman Sturm, Sylvester was beaten from pillar to post. In his comeback, Sylvester only managed to muddle through to a Split Decision against Giovanni Lorenzo, a guy who was flummoxed by former junior welterweight champ Raul Marquez. His 2010 bout with Roman Karmazin was ruled a Split Draw, and many thought Sylvester lost that fight.
Sylvester vs. Geale Preview & Analysis
When you compare these two fighters, their recent performances against mutual opponent Karmazin is what stands out. Neither boxer is a world beater, but Geale soundly defeated Karmazin. Sylvester was lucky to escape with his belt that night in a fight that matched Sylvester’s jab and technique against Karmazin’s pressure and aggressiveness.
The thing is that Geale is at least as well-schooled as Sylvester and can mix it up if he needs to. The fight might be open and competitive for a few rounds, but Sylvester’s only way to win is by out-boxing Geale, and I just don’t see that happening.
That said, this fight is scheduled to take place in Sylvester’s backyard — not just in Germany, but in Sylvester’s home state in Germany! Winning a decision in front of a hometown crowd is hard enough, but winning a decision against a German fighter in Germany is damn near impossible. I would not be surprised to see Geale pitch a lopsided fight, winning 9 rounds out of 12, only to be rewarded with a Majority Draw or even a Split Decision loss at the end of it. For that reason, Geale needs to go for the knockout.
Sylvester vs. Geale Prediction:
Geale TKO11 or Sylvester in a controversial SD12.
