August 11 brings what is the most intriguing match-up of the year to the light heavyweight division, as former champ Jean Pascal challenges the division’s other champ, Tavoris Cloud, in his home turf of Montreal. What makes this bout so intriguing is that while the fight matches the #3 light heavyweight in the world, Pascal, against its #6 fighter in the form of Cloud, the respective styles of these boxers make this a very hard fight to call. Against a man with better defense, Cloud would be meat on the table, but Jean Pascal’s style is anything but defensively sound. With two aggressive, easy to hit fighters in the ring, who is to say which one will come out on top?
Jean Pascal (26-2-1, 16 KOs)
5’11” tall, 67″ reach, 30 years old
Haitian-Canadian
Former WBC Light Heavyweight Champion
Jean Pascal is making his second career comeback. The first comeback saw him rebound from defeat at the hands of the redoubtable Carl Froch, moving up to light heavyweight, establishing himself as a contender, and then lifting Chad Dawson’s crown when Bad Chad was having a bad night. Then Bernard Hopkins jumped on the Quebecois boxer, and Pascal went 0-1-1 with the ageless wonder. In his first fight since losing to Hopkins, Pascal is now challenging for the IBF’s red belt.
Pascal is a busy fighter with good power, good hand speed, respectable skill as a counter-puncher, and a chin that can absorb shots from the likes of Chad Dawson and Carl Froch. Pascal’s weaknesses are that he sometimes loses focus in the ring, causing him to outrun his stamina, and his defense goes over the top rope when he starts throwing punches in bunches.
Tavoris Cloud (24-0, 19 KOs)
5’10” tall, 76″ reach, 29 years old
American
Current IBF Light Heavyweight Champion
“Thunder” lives up to his handle, as he is a pure puncher. Cloud’s defense is his strong offense and a solid chin. He is a strong, stocky light heavyweight who comes forward and throws with bad intentions.
Cloud was the first (and thus far only) man to stop former champ Julio Cesar Gonzalez, earning his shot at the IBF’s red belt. He then pounded out a clean decision over tough Brit Clinton Woods and brawled with the even tougher Glen Johnson to earn a close-but-unanimous decision. Beating Johnson at his own rough-and-tumble game is no mean feat, and even Carl Froch chose not to go that route.
Things were looking good for Cloud until he met a rangy southpaw stylist from Spain named Gabriel Campillo. In one of this year’s more overlooked stinkers, Cloud won a controversial Texas Split Decision in a fight even Cloud’s mother was sure the Spaniard won (she fainted when she heard that her son retained the title). Despite being knocked down twice in the 1st Round, Campillo boxed Cloud’s ears off and should have bagged that fight and the IBF title.
Cloud vs. Pascal Analysis
Before meeting Campillo, many observers wondered what would happen if Cloud met a fighter who had the right combination of grit and technique to avoid being overpowered by his aggression. No one expected that man to be Campillo, but the Spaniard answered the question for us. He absorbed substantial punishment, but was able to weather the storm and score enough points that he should have taken Cloud’s title.
Pascal isn’t a southpaw, isn’t primarily a boxer, and doesn’t have Campillo’s substantial height and reach advantage (indeed, Pascal has a reach deficit against Cloud). The Quebecois’s best option for fighting Cloud is to bring his counter-punching skills into play, but even then he must still stay close to Cloud to hit back. Neither man has much in the defense department, so both will catch plenty of leather. Cloud hits harder; Pascal hits more often and more accurately.
The question is therefore one of who catches best. Pascal’s chin is a known quantity. He has taken shots from Carl Froch and Chad Dawson without falling, although I believe Cloud is a bigger banger than either man. Cloud has also fought some guys who can hit, but I think Pascal hits harder than either Glen Johnson or Clinton Woods. Who will sting the whiskers of the other guy worse? Since both men will be leaning hard on their chins, that issue is the pivot point of this fight.
Cloud vs. Pascal Prediction
Both men are aggressive, so I expect little time will be spent on trying to find the other guy. Serious fireworks might explode in the first minute of the fight. Pascal likes mixing it up and needs to stay close to Cloud to score, but I don’t expect him to stand in front of Cloud. Instead, he will use short lateral moves to force Cloud to reset, come inside Cloud’s optimum punching range, and fire counters in bunches. As a result, Pascal should only absorb the full fury of Cloud’s power if he makes a mistake or gets tired.
I expect Cloud to spend the early-to-middle rounds working Pascal’s body. For a puncher facing a man who has a reputation for running out of steam, this is an obvious choice. Cloud will drop the early rounds, maybe even the first half of the fight, as Pascal scores repeatedly with clear shots to the head on the inside. Although losing rounds, Cloud will invest in breaking down Pascal’s body and bank on coming back in the later rounds. If Cloud cannot work the body effectively or chooses to headhunt and go for an early knockout, he loses the fight.
My expectation is that Cloud will be able to work the body enough to put a leak in Pascal’s gas tank, and as Pascal falters, Cloud will start winning rounds. I don’t think Cloud has enough power to get Pascal out of there, but nor do I think Pascal can crack hard enough to knock Cloud out. However, this will be a close fight and either man has the potential to send the other to the canvas. That knockdown might swing the fight. I favor Cloud to win, but only slightly.
Prediction: Tavoris Cloud SD12
