The Boxing Bankroll: Abraham vs. Froch, Marquez vs. Katsidis and More…
Welcome to the Boxing Bankroll, a weekly guide towards betting on boxing and making the best use of your cash. Use this weekly boxing betting analysis to pick your own bets and start winning big if you make the right moves. Check out the betting odds and analysis for Froch vs. Abraham, Katsidis vs. Marquez, and all of the other big bouts this Thanksgiving weekend.
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- Starting Bankroll: $1000
- Current Bankroll: $1000
Fight #1: Hozumi Hasegawa vs. Juan Carlos Burgos
Preliminary Odds: Hasegawa (-280), Burgos (+220)
Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-200), Under 10.5 (+180)
Thoughts and Pick: Former distinguished bantie champ Hasegawa is moving up to 126 to fight a big undefeated fighter in Burgos. Hasegawa is in his first fight since a disastrous KO at the hands of Fernando Montiel. Burgos figures to be more thrown by this fight being in Japan that Montiel was. Look for the more advanced skill of Hasegawa to flummox the hard-hitting, but crude Burgos.
Bet: $56 on Hasegawa to win $20, and $30 on the over to win $15.
Fight #2: Arthur Abraham vs. Carl Froch
Odds: Abraham –165, Froch +135
Over/Under: Over 11.5 (-120), Under 11.5 (-120)
Thoughts and Pick: Very difficult fight to pick, where any number of outcomes seem plausible. The punching power and skill of Abraham will be factors, but so will Froch’s toughness and higher workrate. I’m thinking the grit, underrated hand speed and length of Froch will win the day. He will earn more rounds with his more consistent workrate and grind through the tough moments when Abraham is able to get his offense untracked. I think Froch can edge this one.
Bet: $50 on Froch to win $67.50
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Fight #3: Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Michael Katsidis
Odds: Marquez (-300), Katsidis (+240)
Over/Under: Over 9.5 (even), Under 9.5 (-140)
Thoughts and Pick: With aging warriors who are still highly-regarded like Marquez, there comes a time when bettors should anticipate the inevitable upset loss. Katsidis has been impressive recently and shown great inner resource to soldier back to the top of the rankings. Against undefeated Kevin Mitchell, he seemed to make improvements to his technique. He’s in a much tougher spot here, however.
There isn’t much in the form of Marquez to lead you to believe he is particularly faded, but that has also been true of every other fighter who grew old overnight. Usually, there isn’t a clear sign. At the same time, one could deem that Marquez is getting a tad rickety based on his last two fights. If Marquez managed to school Katsidis, it wouldn’t be surprising in the least. But my guess is that Marquez has dropped off enough to make Katsidis’ power, aggression, and toughness a package that will difficult for him. This is more of a timing play—trying to predict when a fighter’s erosion will manifest, therefore receiving tremendous value on his opponent.
Bet: Bet $50 on Katsidis to win $120
Fight #4: Andre Berto vs. Freddie Hernandez
Odds: Berto (-1000), Hernandez (+600)
Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-130), Under 9.5 (even)
Thoughts and Pick: Not much value here by betting Berto and an upset seems unlikely. I think Hernandez is a good fighter, but easy to hit. The whirlwind offense of Berto might leave Hernandez a little ragged by the middle rounds, leading to a referee or corner stoppage sometime before it gets halfway through the 10th round.
Bet: $25 on the under to win $25.
Fight #5: Celestino Caballero vs. Jason Litzau
Preliminary Odds: Caballero (-1500), Litzau (+750)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (even), Under 7.5 (+130)
Thoughts and Pick: I really like Litzau as a fighter. He will never be a champion perhaps, but he gives an honest effort every time he fights. In his 2 losses, he was stopped in the 8th round. Caballero has a lot of big fights ahead and probably will be in a mindset of ending this one quickly. Litzau is not a fighter you leave hanging around when you don’t need to. Look for Caballero to put his foot on the gas early and have Litzau out of the fight around the 5th or 6th round.
Bet: $20 on the under to win $20.
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