Analyzing the Potential for a Huge Upset in the Manny Pacquiao vs. Chris Algieri Fight:
When Manny Pacquiao (56-5-2, 38 KOs) enters the Cotai Arena in Macau on November 22 against Chris Algieri (20-0, 8 KOs), he’ll face an undefeated but still largely unproven fighter. Algieri, coming into the bout on the back of his career best win, an extremely close contest with Ruslan Provodnikov, has never fought beyond his comfortable hometown confines of New York.
Pacquiao has been the favorite for both of his bouts since returning from knockout defeat to Juan Manuel Marquez, though never has his perceived superiority been so overwhelming as it is prior to this latest offering.
Yet, is there any chance that he may lose this fight? If so, how would that happen, and what would his defeat mean for his career, and for the sport?
How Algieri Could Defeat Manny Pacquiao
Algieri has two specific and clear advantages over Pacquiao, advantages that can be seen without needing to pair the fighters in a boxing ring. Simply look to the top of this page for an idea of his height advantage. Paired with that, he has an arm span that ensures Pacquiao will have to work intelligently to get inside against him. Provodnikov is of a similar stature to Pacquiao, and the Russian’s wild swings and aggressive nature led him directly into the line of Algieri’s fire.
Obviously, Pacquiao is a better fighter than Provodnikov in ways too numerous to mention, including a more intelligent approach to pressuring opponents, a far more diverse offensive arsenal, superior hand speed, and better footwork. In short, Pacquiao will not play to Algieri’s strengths as Provodnikov did, but those strengths of Algieri’s remain, and they could cause difficulties.
Pacquiao has been less relentless in recent years. His marauding through the weight classes has taken its toll, capped off with his brutal defeat at the hands of Marquez. The Pacquiao of today thinks longer before he throws and his killer instincts have been substantially quelled.
The Filipino icon has even publicly admitted he is not aiming for a knockout win, and his trainer Freddie Roach has voiced concerns over Algieri’s jab and movement. These brief mentions are more significant than they may at first seem. Clearly there is an acknowledgement on team Pacquiao’s behalf that Algieri is no walkover, and this is true. Algieri’s upright boxing, physical advantages and defensive movements will make him a harder man to track down than any of Pacquiao’s recent opponents.
The chances of Pacquiao being hurt in this fight are incredibly slim, but it is well within the realms of possibility that he could lose. Algieri could, in essence, simply play keep-away against a lessened Pacquiao thanks to his style and to his physical advantages.
What if Pacquiao Does Lose?
One thing is for sure — were Pacquiao to lose to Algieri, a fight with Floyd Mayweather is off the table. For good. There is simply no way that Pacquiao’s reputation could survive a hit so big in losing to so inexperienced a challenger. Defeat here, whatever it’s nature, would sound the final and long awaited death knell for what should have been this generation’s biggest fight.
That is not something I am sombre about, particularly as the sell-by date on Mayweather vs. Pacquiao passed a number of years ago. Another thought is markedly more sobering though — the possibility that Pacquiao’s career may come to and end.
Algieri is not a big name, not a big puncher, and is perceived as possessing little to no threat to Pacquiao in most circles. Defeat to Algieri is therefore borderline unfathomable and as such it’s hard to imagine his promoter Bob Arum, or anyone else around Pacquiao, having put together a contingency plan in case of defeat.
The consensus at present seems to be that Pacquiao wins and the Mayweather fight is back on the table, at least in today’s endless rumor mills. It’s almost unnervingly presumptuous, especially considering the ‘unfortunate’ issues that have prevented that fight from happening in the past.
I have a hard time imagining Pacquiao looking good in this fight. Algieri presents stylistic and physical difficulties which, at this stage in his career, will not aid Pacquiao’s cause. I favor the Filipino to win, but defeat would likely make any future resurrection an insurmountable task.
Put simply, Pacquiao has two blunt options going into this fight — win, or retire.
