Looking at where the sport, and each man, would be if they had fought when they should have:
Last time together, we looked at how the 2015 version of Mayweather-Pacquiao differs from what we could’ve expected had the two biggest names in the sport gotten together in 2010 as the world demanded. Sure, we’re getting the megafight the sport and fans deserve now, but just imagine what the past five years, and the present, of boxing would have resembled had Floyd and Manny’s respective handlers gotten past the public displays of affection and actually put pen to paper in 2010.
It’s fairly clear that the boxing landscape and career trajectories of each man would’ve been significantly different had this fight happened in 2010, and not entirely for the better. A Mayweather-Pacquiao fight in 2010 would have not only affected the lives of each fighter in dramatic ways, but likely the face of the sport as we now know it which, depending on your take, is actually looking somewhat promising for the first time in decades.
The key point to look at when examining how history would’ve played out if an event that didn’t occur had occurred is to appreciate what did, or didn’t, happen as a result of that desired event happening, or not happening. Confused? Good.
To put it much more clearly: Mayweather-Pacquiao didn’t happen in 2010, and how much did you enjoy the past five years of boxing as a fan?
Some rules apply this analysis, of course. Though it may be fun over a couple adult soda pops, it’s probably not worthy to apply a butterfly effect-like theory to the lack of a 2010 bout. That’s not what I’m going for, here. It’s much more intriguing to look at how the lives and careers of each man–as well as those they faced since then–may have been impacted had the 2010 fight occurred. And, still, even those limited parameters could have immeasurable amounts of possible outcomes. With that in mind, let’s focus on the top three areas that would’ve been impacted had these two gentlemen laced up the gloves in 2010.
For argument sake, we’ll assume that the date of Mayweather-Pacquiao 2010 would’ve been May 1, 2010 and would’ve taken place in the MGM Grand in Las Vegas:
What if Mayweather won in 2010?
If Floyd Mayweather wins a 2010 fight against Manny Pacquiao, under the same contractual conditions we believe we currently have at this point, is the possibility of a rematch even remotely likely? Arguably, no.
Depending on your view of why this fight is happening now, in 2015, one element that must be both considered and given a great deal of deference is that Floyd has become acutely aware of his legacy. He has always believed, and reminded the world, that he is one of the all time greats.
A convincing victory over Pacquiao, in his 2010 prime, would’ve all but secured such a bold prognostication. Floyd could’ve then enjoyed a legitimate retirement or, more likely, continued down a path similar to that which he has followed in the real world, namely beating guys with some recognition but nowhere near his level of skill.
Oddly, it’s conceivable that had this fight occurred in 2010, and Floyd won at that point, Manny’s career may have played out fairly similarly to the way it has. Maybe he doesn’t fight Juan Manuel Marquez as frequently has he had, but Pacquiao’s roster of opponents over the past five years reads a lot like it probably would have with a Mayweather loss to his record.
Having tasted professional defeat previously, Pacquiao was able to face guys like Marquez or Timothy Bradley without impunity; his legacy was already set by the time those fights occurred. A loss to Mayweather, convincing or not, may have cemented Floyd’s legacy, but really wouldn’t have diminished Manny’s.
What if Pacquiao won in 2010?
Had Pacquiao won the imaginary 2010 fight, it would’ve been all but certain that we would’ve been treated to a trilogy. By handing Floyd his first professional loss in 2010, Manny would have altered the course of both their careers as well as the sport. Regardless of whether there was a rematch clause in the original contract, it’s fairly safe to assume that the minute the “-1” was affixed to Mayweather’s record, the powers-that-be would be working overtime to set up Pacquiao-Mayweather II.
By November 2010, we would’ve been treated to the rematch. There’s really not much point pontificating how this second fight would’ve played out aside from assuming that if Floyd won you’re looking at a rubber match, and if Manny went back-to-back we’re not having a discussion about Floyd’s greatness amongst the all-timers.
The sport since 2010
See, now this is where things get interesting. Clearly, had this fight occurred in 2010, regardless of the outcome, neither man’s career path would have progressed exactly as it had in the real world where we have yet to see this fight.
Arguably, as mentioned, Pacquiao’s career arc in the real world could have been mirrored somewhat similarly had he lost to Mayweather in 2010, but that’s about where the similarities end. And, even there, Pacquiao’s alternate timeline doesn’t mean that boxing looks as it does today had the fight occurred back then.
Careers of numerous fighters would have been altered by a 2010 fight. How would a Miguel Cotto slot in to the discussion? Is Timothy Bradley getting the looks he got if the fight occurs five years ago? Does an undefeated Canelo Alvarez step into the ring with a Pacquiao-dispatched Mayweather? Honestly, it’s impossible to tell.
What is much easier to accept is that what we’re seeing today–a renewed interest in the pageantry and personality of the sport, coupled with some honest-to-goodness national attention–maybe doesn’t happen with this fight occurring in 2010. A very simple test you can conduct right now from the comfort of your laptop or device is this:
Removing Mayweather and Pacquiao from the discussion — what is the next dream fight between active boxers you’d like to see? Part two: Does it even come close to a fraction of the hype and interest of Mayweather Pacquiao? Spoiler alert: The answers are “not sure” and “no,” in that order.
The names of today–a Deontay Wilder, Gennady Golovkin, Keith Thurman, and so on–weren’t ready for primetime in 2010. In 2010, outside of Mayweather and Pacquiao, you’re looking at names like new middleweight champion Sergio Martinez, and the emerging Andre Ward, which was fine in the vacuum of their time but are you going to sell the sport to a mass audience on them? Probably not.
Count me amongst the fans that wanted this fight back in 2010 when both were at the top of their game and could deliver an all-time fight without hesitation. Every fan wants to see to of the best at their best, of course. But, for the good of the sport, boxing in 2015 may be better suited to parlay this megafight into something more lasting than it was in 2010, and that may end up being the true legacy of Mayweather-Pacquiao.
