Klitschko vs. Haye set for July 2nd: Fight Preview
It finally happened. After two years of negotiation, recrimination and name-calling, WBA Heavyweight Champion David Haye is finally set to meet IBF-WBO champ and divisional top dog Wladimir Klitschko. The two are set to collide on July 2nd in Hamburg, Germany in a fight that may finally inject some excitement back into what has heretofore been a moribund heavyweight division.
David Haye (25-1, 23 KOs)
6’3″ tall with 78″ reach, 215 lbs, 30 years old
British
WBA Heavyweight Champion, former Undisputed World Cruiserweight Champion
Haye is not just the man with the gift for gab, but is also a confident, mature champion. He has not lost a fight since 2004, when he was knocked out by Carl “Big Cat” Thompson in what was Haye’s 11th outing. He recovered from that setback to become the unified cruiserweight (200 lbs) champion, and then moved on to the ranks of the big men to fell one of the biggest guys out there, the Russian giant Nikolai Vaulev. Haye is an exciting fighter both inside and outside the ring, although at heavyweight he remains only half-proven at best.
Wladimir Klitschko (55-3, 49 KOs)
6’6 1/2″ tall with 81″ reach, 245 lbs, 35 years old
Ukrainian residing in Germany
IBF-WBO Heavyweight Champion, former WBO Heavyweight Champion
Wladimir Klitschko has had to overcome even more career setbacks than Haye. Although he is now the dominant champion of the heavyweight division and making the tenth defense of his second reign, he didn’t exactly get to his exalted position in style. In 1998, he blew his wad in a fight with journeyman Ross Puritty and got knocked out. Then in 2003, his first reign as WBO champion came to a halt when he made the mistake of letting Corrie Sanders of South Africa, a talented but unmotivated fighter, mix it up with him. Klitschko got starched, and then Lamon Brewster flattened him. Since that time, Klitschko has persevered and ultimately prevailed through sheer, dogged professionalism and consistency, although his robotic, technical style of boxing has made him few fans outside of Central and Eastern Europe.
Klitschko vs. Haye Preview
Of these two fighters, David Haye is the most athletic, which is saying a lot because Wladimir Klitschko is clearly a magnificent specimen. For such a huge man, Klitschko is relatively mobile and has good stamina. However, Haye is clearly the faster and more fluid of the two, both with his hands and on his feet. Also, Klitschko’s stamina has limits. The man can fight at a steady pace for 12 rounds to be sure, but his history demonstrates poor recuperative powers. If he works harder than he can manage or gets hurt, he simply doesn’t recover well.
Also, Klitschko has good speed for a big man, but no fluidity. Despite all the work Emmanuel Steward has done with him, Klitschko remains a stand-up, robotically technical European fighter. That approach is good for a lot of things, but it adapts very poorly on the fly.
However, Klitschko is also the bigger, stronger guy and the harder hitter. Haye is known for his power as well, having stopped the rugged John Ruiz and durable Monte Barrett. Still, the last guy to hear the final bell who also tried to make a fight of it with Klitschko was Samuel Peter in their first encounter. Everyone else either gets knocked out or closes up into a clam shell and stops trying to win.
The interesting thing about both men is their chins, as both have a merely average ability to take a punch. Much is made of Haye, who has been hurt in the past, but frankly I see very little in his record to indicate the glass jaw so many accuse him of having. Still, an average chin at cruiserweight might not hold up so well at heavyweight. As for as Wladimir Klitschko goes, it seems many have forgotten that his jaw isn’t exactly the strongest in the world either, mostly because so few have even gotten to it lately. The bottom line is that when you consider both men have power and both have average chins, in theory either one of them could be knocked out.
Klitschko is very, very good at what he does at this point, but he only does the one thing. He uses his height, reach and substantial experience to pump the jab all night, mixing that punch up with the straight right or left hook when his opponent stops moving side-to-side and gives him a target. This is an important point: Wladimir keeps his guard up if he doesn’t have a sure target, since it opens him to counters. Remember what I wrote about Wlad’s chin? He knows it just as well as I do, and takes care to shield himself. The result is a thoroughly conservative and almost safety-first fighter, with a style and mentality that do not adapt well.
Unlike big brother Vitali, who enjoys a good brawl from time to time, I doubt Klitschko has much of a passion for a trench war. Given his robotic style, that means Dr. Steelhammer effectively has no Plan B. Haye, on the other hand, is a very adaptable fighter. Take the Vaulev and Ruiz fights: Haye’s approach to each of these opponents was quite different. He is also a fast starter with explosive power. The truth is that Klitschko’s resume has a lot of slow guys who can hit or fast guys who can’t hit. Haye is both; he’s fast and and he can hit.
I’ve also never liked the way the Klitschko brothers operate like a tag-team. Big brother Vitali never had a rematch with Chris Byrd. Instead, Wlad took him down twice, and Wlad was better suited to Byrd’s elusive style. For his part, Wlad never had a rematch with Sanders. Instead, Vitali took Sanders apart. The two men operate as a unit to cover for each other’s weaknesses, giving a false appearance of mutual invincibility.
Klitschko vs. Haye Analysis
The Hayemaker should start trying to score from the opening bell, doing his utmost to disrupt Klitschko’s rhythm and avoid a jab-and-grab. I see the key to this fight being if Haye can use his footwork to defuse Klitschko’s efforts to clinch him. If he can, Haye will force Klitschko to throw just to keep Haye back. That kind of punching is open to something Haye does very well, namely aggressive counter-punching. This is where things get tricky. The last slickster Klitschko fought was Eddie Chambers, who is even smaller than Haye. Also, Klitschko can’t fight on his back heel.
Convetional wisdom says (betting odds were 7-4 in favor of Klitschko when I checked) that although Klitschko may get rocked early, he will establish the jab, establish his range, and start breaking Haye into pieces. However, I’m big on boxing as a psychological sport, and I don’t think Klitschko will respond well at all to being rocked. Haye isn’t plodding Sam Peter: the man is quick and has a killer instinct. To get off the hook, Wlad will need to fight, and that is the one thing he is simply awful at. So at that point I see Klitschko not just getting rocked, but knocked down. He might hit the canvas two or even three times in the early rounds.
Klitschko vs. Haye Prediction
However, in my gut I just don’t think Haye has the sheer power to finish Klitschko off. Flustered and shaken, Klitschko will gut it out and get on his feet. He might drop a round or two going into an entirely defensive shell and getting his legs back under him, but Dr. Steelhammer will weather the storm and he will eventually get his jab going. Haye will have his moments and maybe bag a round or two later in the fight, but after Klitschko gets going, it will be jab-jab-jab for most of the night. This will bust Haye up and win rounds, and eventually Haye might even be deterred, just like most of Klitschko’s opponents. However, it won’t knock Haye out. Klitschko will barely throw the right hand or left hook at all, for fear of catching a counter.
When the final bell rings, I expect Haye to have won at least four rounds, with two of them 10-8 (maybe even 10-7) rounds. Klitschko will have won eight rounds or fewer, but with no knockdowns. The result should speak to a narrow Split Decision win for Haye, but this fight is in Hamburg and there is no way Wladimir Klitschko loses a close (or any) decision in Germany. Haye will get robbed, with his only hope for revenge a rematch in Britain that will never take place.
Prediction: Wladimir Klitschko by controversial UD12
